40 replies to this topic

[gm_general]

I've never seen so many bullish slobbering posters on Yahoo Finance, they are frothing at the mouth.

[claire]

Fib, do your indicators suggest any time frame for your target (ST, IT, or LT)?  Thanks.

[fib_1618]

Fib, do your indicators suggest any time frame for your target (ST, IT, or LT)?  Thanks.

 

Timing is always tricky as far as reaching price targets, but we do have enough energy now to take us higher through the rest of this month.

 

I have found that it's far better to monitor an advance (or decline as the case may be) than cut yourself short or stay around too long due a preconceived timing windows. All that really counts in this business is probability and outcome...how long it takes is rather meaningless, if not a fool hardy exercise, as we have seen all too well both on message boards and by the talking heads who are interviewed on business channels who should know better than to stick their necks out when they have no control of economic or geopolitical events.

 

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 08 July 2016 - 07:50 PM.

[fib_1618]

I've never seen so many bullish slobbering posters on Yahoo Finance, they are frothing at the mouth.

 

Were these the same people who were foaming at the mouth bears just a week ago?

 

Yahoo is, by and large, for those who are trying their hand in beating the market and become defensive or suddenly disappear when things don't go their way. True, there may be one or two people with consistency, but I would avoid Yahoo boards like the plague and continue to do your own work without prejudice.

 

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 08 July 2016 - 06:24 PM.

[gm_general]

What I meant was for pure visceral sentiment contrarian indicator, these folks are great when that sentiment is at an extreme. And sure enough, they were super bearish at the recent bottom.

[gm_general]

 

http://www.zerohedge...much-worse-2008

 

[MDurkin]

 

Sometimes, especially on trending days like today, I get the feeling this market is going to go parabolic like 1999, killing every short, sucking in every sideline dollar, and soaring to heights totally nonsensical (although we're probably at that level already), and then crash from there with so much ferocity that 1932 will look like a single blip on some stock-history sonar, and the bonds... uh, don't even want to think about what happens when that biggest of all bubbles bursts...

 

Oh, well, just a feeling, and as we all know feelings are usually not worth diddly....

 

Well, on breakout days like today, it might be better to allow others to worry about things like this and just ride the wave as far as it will take you.

 

With your own personal experience in working with such tools as the McClellan's, you will have more than ample time to prepare for any scenarios that you've outlined here.

 

BTW...the 1 year platform pattern in which the market is just now breaking out of measures to around 2600 on the SPX give or take 50 points.

 

Fib

 

Dave what's your thoughts one Treasury's... usually they go up when the market goes up... not now?

[fib_1618]

Longer term history has shown that until the FED Funds rate moves above its 200 month EMA, any talk of bubbles are a failed exercise.

 

Currently, the 200 month EMA is at 1.79%.

 

Fib

 

[fib_1618]

Dave what's your thoughts on Treasury's... usually they go up when the market goes up... not now?

 

Not sure on your question as all four of the major asset classes are rising simultaneously since we have record amounts of cash in the global financial system (gold, commodities, debt, equities).

 

It's like a lake at flood stage and even the bypasses are overflowing...until it starts to recede (higher rates), you won't see the natural ebb and flows of liquidity as it moves from one asset class to the other.

 

At this stage though, as long as money continues to support the interest rate sensitive areas of the markets, this PROMISES us higher equity prices in the not too distant future.

 

If I missed the basis of your question, if you could post a chart or provide a follow up, and I would be glad to address it.

 

Fib

[gm_general]

Since that will never happen, you are saying this bubble will never end. It will never happen as the reason its not going up is the amount owed yearly on interest yearly is already too much (like 15% of total GDP), and debt is going up parabolically. Rates will go negative at some point in the US.