711 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

don't see much chance for the bears. If the market does stay flat or weaken for the next few days, it will be a huge gift and allow me to get up to 75% long; as it is, I just don't want to put any more risk on today, going into the weekend and the end of that 20-wk cycle, with possible risk-off drawdown. Hope I don't miss too much of the rally, if it does happen.

[lawdog]

good advance so far, but still four spx points shy of yesterday's high, so maybe we get some resistance there again (I hope).

[lawdog]

Gain fading again; it's that 12:00 curse. Fine with me unless it turns into a waterfall.

[lawdog]

Increased long position to 36%. I think there is risk aversion to the ACA vote, but I don't think that issue will have much of an effect, other than perhaps a knee-jerk reaction one way or the other that I have no way of gaming.

[lawdog]

a bit of a waterfall here. looks like the strength of the cycle overrides the oversold nature of the market, it's oversold and can and is becoming more oversold. Not going to increase my position, but will hang in there, The decline into Tuesday looks likely now,  I had hoped for weakness, but would have felt better about it had I not added that last tranche, which is now showing a 10 spx point loss. For the bears, I think this is the best decline since the Trump rally began. Close to pulling the plug on at least a portion of my position, cut from 36% down to 26%. Maybe we get a bounce here, but once we take out the prior lows, that's it. NAZ holding up okay, so that helps, but most of my position is in the spx which is getting whacked. spx is holding, but not recovering, not a good sign.

[lawdog]

We have become to used to lack of volatility that a 10-15 pt spx move in an hour looks huge. Maybe we are getting back to a more normal, more volatile market. 

[lawdog]

sold down to 26% long on end of the bounce from -9 to -6. I like the opportunity to buy lower and for the market to be more oversold next week, but still, being wrong is no fun.

[lawdog]

i have to say that i have pretty much no conviction as to the immediate direction of the averages. we could complete this correction in a few days, getting to fully oversold, or we could get a day or two up, which would probably set the market for another drop. i will give the market a chance with my 26% long position, but i won't give it much room before selling out. if you are looking here for any insight, i'm afraid i don't have it for you right now. 4 weeks ago we were at 2367, rallied to closing high of 2395, and now at 2344, so pretty much the market has stayed in a 50-pt range on a closing basis, 2% range. so it hasn't been an easy 4 weeks. the market will tip its hand soon, so i will stay patient, flexible and keep positions small until a strong edge shows up. 

[lawdog]

so is this the buy? maybe it is, but my guess is for more downside; possible buy on Tuesday morning. if things don't look like a great buy after the first hour, i may sell my long position (26% of max) and look for a re-entry at lower prices.

[lawdog]

thistime tomorrow i may be wishing i sold out at this bounce to only -12 spx. took it to sell down to 15% long. hoping market washes out thru tues a.m. and then start building longs again. fading news events this year and last have proven profitable