Failing now; not good for the bulls. I kind of believe in the long position for now, so I will hang in there with the longs. Dropping pretty fast; 10 minutes ago spx was over +10, now only +5. Wonder if there was a news event. Doesn't matter. The market knows all, or at least more than anyone else. holding long.
My trading plan right now
Started by
lawdog
, Jan 15 2017 09:33 AM
711 replies to this topic
#462
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 23 March 2017 - 12:10 PM
just like that the gain is gone. kind of sad.
#463
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 23 March 2017 - 12:16 PM
Do I dare add to my longs. Have 20% long; still think there is room to run. I will take it easy. Have had a decent week with the Tuesday swoon, so let's not blow it.
#464
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 23 March 2017 - 01:35 PM
See no reason to be short yet; seems to be some room to run. Kind of messes up my theory of a top today or tomorrow and then decline into Tuesday. Looking more like we made lows yesterday around 2336 and that's about it. But we will see. I don't want to put a big bet on this one right now, but feel comfortable with the 20% i have right now.
#465
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 23 March 2017 - 02:26 PM
added 7% more at spx -1, up to 26% long. couldn't resist.
#466
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 23 March 2017 - 02:37 PM
disappointing day. will hold my longs. at least we are getting some volatility.
#467
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 23 March 2017 - 02:39 PM
maybe that decline into tuesday will play out now. hate losing money.
#468
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 23 March 2017 - 03:04 PM
pretty much ended flat for me; sorry to give back some gains, but i sold out at hod and made a conscious, rational decision to buy back in at modestly lower prices than what i sold out at. the good is that we now have more information to seek for an edge.
#469
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 24 March 2017 - 02:59 AM
disappointed in my trading today. got it all right until i started buying back after market had peaked and started down. didn't lose that much, but had a decent profit going, which i gave all back and then some. not sure if we are ready to rally here. lots of things looking favorable, but if we are finishing the 20-wk cycle, we could get more oversold. that i am only 26% in right now feels okay. i think we are near bottom, so if we are and rally from here, i have some skin in it; if we drop some more, possibly into 3/28, then i have ammo ready to take advantage of steeper oversold. futures positive but that did not work yesterday. kind of amazing we are as oversold as we are and yet only 2% off ath's; still, there is room for some more downside, so being a little defensive seems best. nothing is ever certain; i just play probabilities and lighten up when uncertainty is great. just like money management playing blackjack: the better the probability, the bigger the bet. a decline into tuesday would be best thing for the market overall, from a bullish perspective.
#470
lawdog
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 1,080 posts
Member
Posted 24 March 2017 - 08:40 AM
this rally should not fail. if it does fail, i think it reflects a shift to liquidation, risk-off kind of stuff. this would be consistent with the decline into tuesday scenario i have been watching. it could go either way. i would prefer the decline, even though i am long, just to set up a good spring rally which could take us up 4-5%, which would be nice if you catch it with a full position with full leverage. sfsg.
