Well...the bad news for the gold bears is that with Friday's close above $1260 in gold, this now cancels the SOB trigger of earlier this month while keeping us humble in our analytical prowess.
Now the good news for the gold bulls is that this same trigger bottom created bullish divergence in the XAU/Yahoo advance/decline line and we have rallied since that time though the yellow metal remains within the confines of the ongoing trading range discussed two months ago. Even better news is that the Precious Metals breadth MCSUM broke out to close Friday at the highest levels since the sell signal back in February of this year. With the longer term time window forecast of the next probable tradable bottom in gold to occur sometime around the beginning of August, any further strength from this juncture would then suggest that the price lows at $1209.70 completed the floor of a basing structure, and higher prices would be anticipated as we move into the 3rd quarter. Helping this forecast along has been a bearishly trending U.S. Dollar along with continued money flow strength in the interest rate asset class which not only suggests cheaper money (inflationary expectations) on the longer end of the yield curve will continue for the next several weeks, but this also promises us higher equity prices in the not too distant future.
Next update will be the weekend of August 26th.