With the longer term time window forecast of the next probable tradable bottom in gold to occur sometime around the beginning of August, any further strength from this juncture would then suggest that the price lows at $1209.70 completed the floor of a basing structure, and higher prices would be anticipated as we move into the 3rd quarter.
With the price of gold now challenging the ceiling of its trading range, the XAU/Yahoo advance/decline line is now showing bearish divergence with Friday's closing high. With the A/D line itself closing right at its declining tops line on Friday, this is now a make or break moment for this asset class as we head into the final month of the 3rd quarter. Given the fact that silver is having its issues in closing above its 200 day EMA, and the ongoing bullishness we have with the yields on notes and bonds continuing to trend lower, any "failure to succeed" to breakout above the trading range would push the next opportunity for a tradable intermediate term bottom out to the end of the year.
Next update will be the weekend of September 30th.