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Large Drop Monday?

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#1 blustar

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Posted 30 June 2018 - 03:13 PM

My read is we have a large drop Monday July 2 completing "c" of B near 2634 SPX and C being due Sept 12 near 2872.  This week made a wxy "b" wave flag. Wave "a" was an abc drop into June 25 from June 13.  Mercury squares Uranus today meaning something unpredictable hits the market.  The perfect 100 TD low from Feb 9 is due on July 5.  The Gann 64 TD low is due July 3 and the Gann 24 or 3 x 8 is due July 2.  The 4 TD low is due maximum July 2 or +1 at 5 TD's.  July 2nd has to be the low!  Trines are positive but choppy into week's end next week.  Watch for drops early July 5 and especially July 9 where the next inverted delta low is due.

 

Have a great 4th!



#2 robo

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Posted 30 June 2018 - 04:55 PM

You can also add this to the selling pressure Monday.  I doubt many traders are even tracking this  - (Dates of QT).   Watching for the next ICL to place a VXF long trade.

 

 

 

Friday, June 29, 2018
U.S. Equities: Something to Think About For Monday's Session
 
From The Macro Tourist, 2018-06-27 2pm EDT: 
 
I was surprised to find that government bonds can mature on a weekend. I don’t trade a lot of cash US treasuries and didn’t realize they can mature on a non-business day.

This means that this month’s QT maturity day effect will occur on Monday - not Friday’s month end.

So mark it in your calendars - Monday July 2nd spooz should trade heavy if this QT theory holds true.

Thanks for reading,


Kevin Muir
the MacroTourist

 

The streak is alive and well. QT days have been rather large down days for the S&P 500.
And this month’s maturity is another big one - over $30 billion....MORE

 
 
 
 
 

Edited by robo, 30 June 2018 - 05:04 PM.


#3 tsharp

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Posted 30 June 2018 - 08:48 PM

Hmmmm... I'm seeing wave-i and a running wave-ii as complete, so UP next week is the most likely path... twt.

 

240-min SP00s from Nov 2016 with the pivots confirmed by my momentum set-up:

 

SP00_240_6.30.18.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/q149lr4dl/



#4 pdx5

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Posted 30 June 2018 - 09:20 PM

Just watch the headline news and it will tell you.


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#5 CLK

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Posted 01 July 2018 - 07:56 AM

Hourly has turned down, I went short the close after taking a big drawdown earlier. Have to trade the system.



#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:13 AM

This setup happens with regularity...

 

(Snippet From Monday's SPX Forecast)

 

Technically this was nearly perfect as we saw a low of 2691.99 on Thursday, just one penny under the 2692 support we gave and then a sharp rally off the low and then on Friday it was extended "to the moon".  Friday's pullback in the final hour was a classic month end signature, as the operators pushed as hard as possible to the upside, then tanked it in the final hour, to set up the old "every month starts with a gap up" opening on Monday.


Edited by SemiBizz, 01 July 2018 - 09:13 AM.

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#7 Data

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Posted 01 July 2018 - 01:19 PM

The notes and bonds are sorted by maturity date on the NY Fed's web site for System Open Market Account holdings.  They generally mature on the 15th and the last calendar day of the month.  The flip side is the same is true of settlement dates for the new issues.  QE is down about 50-60 billion dollars a month from last year. Europe and Japan can self-finance their debts through printing until the 4th quarter.


Edited by Data, 01 July 2018 - 01:21 PM.






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