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DO or DIE for the BULLS tomorrow


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:10 AM

Want to add another 10 or 15 QQQ puts on huge spike up after FED thing and "good progress" on Trade talks

 

NQ diving now but this could be temporary (he hopes!)....

 

IF MARKET DOES NOT ZOOM AHEAD AFTER THE FED announcement, then sell sell sell

 

It's been mainly hit & run NQ trading for me last few sessions, 4 lot (2-1-1) positions. 

 

FAANG Stocks Weak, Drag Down Influential NASDAQ 100 Tom Bowley | January 30, 2019 at 09:00 AM

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 29, 2019 It was a bifurcated and trying day on Wall Street.  Bifurcation isn't necessarily a bad thing as some indices will simply outperform others on certain days and short-term trends in that regard can mostly be ignored.  But one problem throughout this cyclical bear market is that the more aggressive NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) has been lagging the benchmark S&P 500 and it's been rather consistent.  Generally, when the NDX lags, the overall market is not performing very well.  Here's a look at the past decade: ...

 

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 29, 2019

It was a bifurcated and trying day on Wall Street.  Bifurcation isn't necessarily a bad thing as some indices will simply outperform others on certain days and short-term trends in that regard can mostly be ignored.  But one problem throughout this cyclical bear market is that the more aggressive NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) has been lagging the benchmark S&P 500 and it's been rather consistent.  Generally, when the NDX lags, the overall market is not performing very well.  Here's a look at the past decade:

15488555284421138977566.pngOver the past decade, there have only been four times when the weekly PPO of the NDX:SPX ratio has dropped below the centerline (red circles).  The red shaded areas highlight the absolute and relative performance of the NASDAQ 100 during these periods.  When the PPO is negative and the ratio is beneath its 20 week EMA, the best that the NDX does is consolidate.  One worry I have is that this very influential index (NDX) is turning back down vs. the benchmark S&P 500 and is currently below the 20 week EMA.  This relationship needs to change for the next bull market to emerge.

 

https://stockcharts....nasdaq-100.html

 



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:14 AM

Let's see how high  this bounces from low of the day....

 

I note many BULLS are worried, that is BULLISH (think about it, it may be counter-intuitive)

 

 

While there is no reason to abandon our favorite long-term investments, there is also no reason to chase prices higher. Either we dip under 2,600 over the next few days or weeks, or we trade sideways for a while. Neither setup creates a good short-term buy. Instead, we should be patient and wait for a better entry.

If the market fails to rally on good news and finishes at the lows for a few days in a row, that is a bearish signal and an inviting short entry. If prices fall under 2,600 support, but quickly find a bottom, then that is our signal to buy the dip. And if we keep grinding sideways, then we just sit and watch. We only want to hold the risk of owning stocks when we are getting paid for it. If stocks are drifting sideways, we’re not getting paid and should be watching safely from the sidelines. We only want to buy when the risk/reward is stacked in our favor and that is not the case at these levels.

Screen-Shot-2019-01-29-at-8.00.26-PM.png https://cracked.mark...-mixed-signals/



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:21 AM

Not going LONG NQ here, waiting....

No recession in 2019, maybe start of one, slower growth but economy still relatively long.

Of course, geopolitical and other factors besides FA & TA can send the global economy into recession earlier that expected

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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US consumers' outlook on labor mkt has inverted, generating another recession signal, Quill's @DiMartinoBooth says. Jobs hard to get-fewer jobs 6 mth spread dropped to -3.6%, lowest since Oct2008. Since 1960s, recessions have followed 6 of 7 times labor mkt inversion sank to -3.

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3:46 AM - 30 Jan 2019


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:25 AM

I cannot remember ever having so many opening gaps up and down in the S&P like we've seen in the last week and change. I'm sure we've had 'em but wow.

 

In the last week we have exited then re-entered then exited. Maybe it is time to stop using this phrase?

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6:35 AM - 30 Jan 2019


#15 K Wave

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:32 AM

This is starting to look like a good setup for a pop and drop after Fed....

 

If it manages to hold above ES 2650 though tomorrow, then may be something else going on longer term.

But for now, it looks like we are very close to a swing turn back down...



#16 redfoliage2

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 12:18 PM

The Fed and the trade talk that are the things that will move the market one way or the other.  Obviously today the market is on something bullish.  Hopefully not on fake news again...........


Edited by redfoliage2, 30 January 2019 - 12:28 PM.


#17 dTraderB

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 12:26 PM

The post-Fed reaction is important.

Also, the Trade talks progress.

 

But, all that can disappear if earnings are not as expected.

In the interim, just buy NQ, exit in any intraday pullback, buy again....hit & run.... no waiting around.

 

QQQ 165 & above is a shorting level for me.



#18 K Wave

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 02:03 PM

Here's the pop....



#19 dTraderB

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 02:06 PM

added 6 QQQ puts

 

 

let's get this market up another 3 to 4 QQQ points before Friday afternoon



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 02:18 PM

FED to markets: YOU ARE NOW FREE TO RALLY! 

 

For Powell, it is a major CYA: don't blame me or my pals at the FED if the market goes down!

 

If now the TRADE TALKS put can materialize and a few good earnings reports from the big guns, we could see SPX 2800 within 2 weeks!

 

WHAT A GREAT SHORTING OPPORTUNITY!

 

Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
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BREAKING:

*FED SAYS IT'S PREPARED TO ADJUST BALANCE-SHEET NORMALIZATION

*FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO FURTHER GRADUAL RATE INCREASES *FED HOLDS RATES, PLEDGES `PATIENT' STANCE ON FUTURE MOVES https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/fed-adopts-patient-rate-stance-with-balance-sheet-flexibility?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-economics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=economics&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social 

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11:01 AM - 30 Jan 2019