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Who's Number ONE bond timer?


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 05:25 PM

Congrats Carl, Couldn't happen to a nicer guy!
Decision Point Chart Spotlight

Timer Digest has ranked Decision Point #1 Bond Timer for the 52-week period ending 1/26/2007.


"Nearly two years ago I stopped making discretionary calls for bonds (my best guess for market direction), and decided to use a mechanical model that I call the Trend Model, so named because it is driven strictly by trend-following tools, and relies only on the movement of the price index to generate decisions.

The model uses crossovers of the 20-, 50-, and 200-EMAs (exponential moving averages) of price to generate buy, sell, and neutral signals. The relationship of the 50-EMA to the 200-EMA determines if the price index is in a long-term bull or bear market. For example, it the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, it is a bull market.

Crossovers of the 20-EMA and 50-EMA actually generate the signals. If the 20-EMA crosses up through the 50-EMA, a buy signal is generated. When the 20-EMA crosses down through the 50-EMA a sell signal is generated if the 50-EMA is below the 200-EMA, otherwise the model switches to neutral. This is an important feature, because we don't want to be short in a bull market."

Check out the link.
He's up double digit percentages in almost everything using this system.

:cheer:

Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 February 2007 - 05:34 PM.


#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 05:53 PM

PS: As Carl says, you need a trending market for this system to work.
Just Look at SMH:
http://stockcharts.c...1663&r=4013.png

#3 selecto

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 06:02 PM

He makles 2 round trips in 2006 and that's timer of the year. Wow.

#4 fib_1618

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 06:38 PM

The model uses crossovers of the 20-, 50-, and 200-EMAs (exponential moving averages) of price to generate buy, sell, and neutral signals. The relationship of the 50-EMA to the 200-EMA determines if the price index is in a long-term bull or bear market. For example, it the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, it is a bull market.

One of the simplest technical methods of knowing if a price chart is either friendly or hostile, and from that, you can make informed trading decisions without even knowing about ambiguous outside influences that some use when things don't go the way they feel they should.

Keeping things simple does have its rewards in this business.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#5 Sentient Being

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 06:39 PM

Ok, I'm looking at it, the blue is the fast line and it's below the red which is a medium speed and the red is below the green which is the slow speed. It's on a sell right now? Looks like it's maybe getting whipped around a bit at the moment. Wasn't it on a buy near the last peak then flipped to a sell after the peak and now maybe be about to flip to a buy again? Wait a minute. If this is a bond discussion why am I seeing a semiconductor chart?

Edited by Sentient Being, 03 February 2007 - 06:39 PM.

In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~

#6 Sentient Being

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 06:53 PM

Ok, I get it, you are making the point that Semis are not favorable at this time?
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~

#7 A-ha

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 07:16 PM

I guess the question is

"how the hell I am gonna know a stock is trending or not before it moves for a few months?"

Ooo wait a minute, even if it does, does it represent the future trend? What if it starts cratering right after I buy? Then how would I know whether trend changed or not for a few months?


When I was shorting the life out of Semis in September, I received a few million advise from trend traders that I was gonna get slaughtered... I show you who got slaughtered :lol:

http://stockcharts.c...1663&r=4013.png


Posted Image

http://stockcharts.c...1663&r=4013.png

Edited by xD&Cox, 03 February 2007 - 07:21 PM.


#8 fib_1618

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 07:28 PM

When I was shorting the life out of Semis in September, I received a few million advise from trend traders that I was gonna get slaughtered... I show you who got slaughtered

Your chart shows deception in your comment about the "trend traders"....

because....

It was already in a bearish configuration based on the EMA structure of the chart - the price pattern was trading under the 200 day EMA which would provide a "hostile" environment in which to go long - and no true trend trader would have the audacity to make such a ridiculous statement based on this simple technique.

So, as far as a few million, take off the million, and the trend trader part, and then we all can say "nicely done".

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#9 A-ha

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 07:36 PM

Your own statements show how you may be deeply deceived or you just cant overcome the ego... Take a closer look at mid September period of AMD.. That is where I shorted it... I bet you would have bought it with both fists as it was above all major MAs with 20 and 50 were rising and 200 was flat... So please dont give me that...

Edited by xD&Cox, 03 February 2007 - 07:44 PM.


#10 A-ha

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 07:47 PM

Here is another one I shorted that time ... I have a feeling you would have bought it at the same time... sight

please feel free to add 300 400 MAs.. they were all rising ..

ooo i know thats why we all have stops...

http://stockcharts.c...1663&r=4013.png

Edited by xD&Cox, 03 February 2007 - 07:56 PM.