37 replies to this topic

[arbman]

If the market is going to come after the bears, I really don't see them in the equity option data. People went long deep in the money calls while, they bought at the money or out of the money puts...

Here's the $-worth of the puts and calls from the open interest data (April options in billions)...

% e_calls e_puts
-5 2.27 6.13
-4 2.55 5.54
-3 2.87 5.03
-2 3.23 4.59
-1 3.64 4.21
0 4.12 3.89
1 4.66 3.62
2 5.26 3.37
3 5.91 3.16
4 6.64 2.97
5 7.43 2.80

I showed a few days ago that the situation was extremely different at the lows, we had a clear 4% upside potential from the options at least...

Now the market is up by 3 back to back 2-3% rallies within 2 weeks. It is hard to expect much more without a consolidation, but I don't see much downside, that's the problem. So, it can correct by slowly drifting up since there is always shorting into such action and then blow off...

Edited by arbman, 04 April 2008 - 12:58 AM.

[kc135a]

All of you shorts need to ask yourself this question:

How good are your abilities at picking tops and bottoms?



You guys are on a hair trigger. I can feel it.

I am truly humbled.

If I worried about 5 sigma events I would never trade.

Good reasons for a trading short and good ones not to be. Pressing the issue there are also good reasons to sit back and do nothing.

I am not thinking bear or bull,... just up or down. It is easier that way.

FWIW there are two TA methods I am looking at that are indicating a very sharp down correction to a higher low, not a lower low. I am looking at up to 600 DOW points down for this move where I would be walking down with 100-200 points at a time or until it stops working. What the heck. Maybe the move is only 200-400 points. Darn, wouldn't that be a shame.

If the trade does not work, it just gets posted with the other 1/3rd of total trades that did not work. Can't get them all.

It's a numbers game and if I get 2 out of 3 that works just fine.


KC

[NAV]

All of you shorts need to ask yourself this question:

How good are your abilities at picking tops and bottoms?

As far as I know, A-Ha is probably the best on this board for that, and he's still long. Many of you JUST DO NOT HAVE THE SKILL for consistently being profitable doing this. And you certainly don't have any business being fully short when as far as I can tell, most of you suck at top and bottom picking.

Look at my post earlier. I bet those that are fully short now are the same people who were fully short near the bottom. How many of you who were fully long at the bottom are fully short here?

I don't know why people think 4% upside days can't be followed by another 4% upside day. You had 3% downside days followed by 3% downside days. Do people really think that there's some sort of gate that limits how much can be gained over a period of days? Those back to back downside days were caused by panic. As my post yesterday said, panic also occurs to the upside.

You guys are on a hair trigger. I can feel it.

What a bunch of manure !. The title of the post was "How many folks are short into the employment report ?". It was not about pimping for some trader or belittling many fine traders on this board. Paper traders are advised to eat popcorn and watch "Sex and the city"

[NAV]

DCEngineer, Trading is about how you manage your wins and losses. It's not about winning 100% of the trades. In the last 2 weeks, i have done 4 trades. 2 winners and 2 losers, all posted real-time on this board. Two trades fetched 30 points each. One trade lost 6 points. The other one lost 4 points. Net gain = 30 + 30 - 6 - 4 = 50 points. Yes, my win/loss rate was only 50% percent. But i made 50 SPX points in 2 weeks. I am a loser in your book. But my accounts say something else. Since you don't have a clue of what short term trading is all about, i won't waste anymore of my time on nonsense like this.

[dcengr]

My paper profits will beat your real profits by the time this trade is over Btw, my paper profits are already past mid 5 figures But only I get to know if that includes the numbers behind the decimal point (and whether it includes the decimal point as a figure)

[redfoliage2]

VST within a few hours there is still a potential to revisit 1378 and make a double top there. However, this does not have to happen for a turn. ST within days it's a SELL. If you have not gone short do it sometime Friday.

Edited by redfoliage2, 04 April 2008 - 01:43 AM.

[NAV]

Nav,

if you don't mind me asking, where is your stop?

thanks

I posted the stop, when i posted my trade yesterday - SPX 1378. Obviously, if they gap-up huge, i will lose more.

[NAV]

My paper profits will beat your real profits by the time this trade is over

Btw, my paper profits are already past mid 5 figures

But only I get to know if that includes the numbers behind the decimal point (and whether it includes the decimal point as a figure)

YAHOOOOOOOOO......

[beta]

My paper profits will beat your real profits by the time this trade is over

Btw, my paper profits are already past mid 5 figures

But only I get to know if that includes the numbers behind the decimal point (and whether it includes the decimal point as a figure)

I thought it was $1.70 ?

[dcengr]

600.00 There, that's one possibility For 1 week's worth of work, that's more than $100/day. I dare any of you to beat that.