Posted 04 April 2008 - 12:15 AM
I did post TA. Did you not see my post where the TT folks were mega bearish near the bottom? Did you know that besides Mark, I'm one of the few people who record the daily data and run statistics on it?
But that's not the only piece of confirming data. I said it yesterday, go look at Equity P/C and ISEE. And I posted a few charts showing how VIX, SMH, XLF are about to break down/up. At every critical trend juncture/major resistance, as a trader, you have to ask yourself... is everyone else thinking the same thing?
If everyone was already fully short, and the market refused to go down, then who bought when they sold? People like me, perhaps? I'm not even 200% long yet. I can absorb more bears trying to sell if I wanted to. What will bears do if I bid higher than market tomorrow? Do bears have enough $ left to try and sell it down? How could they? They're already fully short. Far as I can tell, bears are at the bull's mercy at this juncture.
Every piece of bad news this week has been absorbed and spit out. This is not weak hands holding longs. I don't care whether Bernanke thinks we're going into recession or not. Or whether there's another bank blowup. Or there's less employment. So what makes you think other strong hands will?
I have a price target in mind, and I'll be selling when it gets there, when I feel many shorting capitulates and are forced to buy my inventory, not because of the economy is doing good, but because they have been bluffed out of their hand.
Or until I think conditions change where I believe a change in plan is warranted.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?