16 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Art Cashin said it best...That the lows we experienced during this winter's credit crisis would be followed up by new lows later in the year based on the economy. Just when you think the news is awful, it's going to get worse. The plight of the consumer is only one aspect. The next big calamity will be serious unemployment. I am expecting 7 to 8% here in California by this time next year. I think a lot of us on this board are traders who aren't in touch with the guts of the companies underlying the stock issues we trade every day. I am not one of them. I have my hand on the pulse of the economy in the work that I do. Without being too specific for now, I would stay clear of electronics, communications and semiconductors. We all know that the banks and brokers are bankrupt. Now the effects of all the weakness in these sectors along with the severe penalty the consumer is paying with this inflation are about to come home to roost. It's going to be a long hot summer. I recommend to everyone to take precautions. Make sure you have that emergency cache of water, food, firearms or whatever you might need prepared... The way this is unveiling is a little at a time. It's a giant game of Texas Hold'em and virtually EVERYONE is bluffing... First a Bear Stearns, then a Lehman, by September there will be an avalanche of firms in trouble and not just the banks and brokers, as if that wasn't bad enough, and they will not be rescued as the F'ed really can't save any of them but only delay the inevitable. So be ready for anything, there is not a single person alive that can help us. The F'eds and your government can do nothing to stop this, and that's exactly what they are doing. As citizens though we can band together and get much done though, and that's what it's going to take... Be Prepared !!

[ogm]

Without being too specific for now, I would stay clear of electronics, communications and semiconductors. We all know that the banks and brokers are bankrupt. Now the effects of all the weakness in these sectors along with the severe penalty the consumer is paying with this inflation are about to come home to roost.

You're a tease

I don't think we'll need water and firearms, but yes, the economy is going to get significantly worse, thats for sure.

And of course AAPL, etc will be affected by deflation in consumer products as demand falls. Notice how they priced thew new Iphone already.

[big nick]

Thank you, i admire your work and character...Read you all the time

[trioderob]

Thank you, i admire your work and character...Read you all the time

one thing I have noticed is that people seem to be over extreme.

when things are good they are the "best times" ever.

when things look bad its the "end of the world".

99% of the time it is some where in the middle

the united states of america is going to be o.k.

Edited by trioderob, 10 June 2008 - 07:50 PM.

[ogm]

65% Very Worried Over Rising Food Costs; Half Cutting Back to Afford Food

Sixty-five percent (65%) of American adults are very concerned about rising food prices. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that 50% say they have had to cut back other spending to buy groceries.

Nearly half the nation’s adults (49%) believe that government policies are to blame for rising food prices, while 31% blame the free market...............

http://rasmussenrepo..._to_afford_food


50% of the population can't afford FOOD. Never mind some f-ing Iphone.

Edited by ogm, 10 June 2008 - 07:52 PM.

[beta]

50% of the population can't afford FOOD. Never mind some f-ing Iphone.

Half the U.S. population is overweight. Just saying ...

High-tab restaurant stocks might need to go on a diet. Let 'em short CAKE.

Edited by beta, 10 June 2008 - 07:58 PM.

[ogm]

50% of the population can't afford FOOD. Never mind some f-ing Iphone.

Half the U.S. population is overweight. Just saying ...

High-tab restaurant stocks might need to go on a diet.

Oh they will go on a diet. The whole stock market will go on a diet

btw, people are overweight not because they eat too much, but because they eat garbage. Because 90% of the food sold in grocery stores is unhealthy garbage, not to mention McDonalds, etc.

Edited by ogm, 10 June 2008 - 08:00 PM.

[milbank]

I like that Texas Hold 'Em analogy Semi. I said a year ago it's going to be a death by a thousand cuts. That quote of yours from Cashin is correct. The equities markets will reflect the pain more accurately when the real economy gets hit and, as bad as things seem now, they are nowwhere near where they are going to be when Joe and Jane Sixpack have to pay their ever higher bills month after month with no real rise in their income. This will cause more unemployment that will cause more pain. Rinse and repeat. The longer the Powers That Be keep this pig propped up, the longer and harder the pain will be in my opinion. Jawboning doesn't change a thing in the real world. It just prolongs the inevitable. Jawboning "We will follow developments in the subprime market closely. However, fundamental factors—including solid growth in incomes and relatively low mortgage rates—should ultimately support the demand for housing, and at this point, the troubles in the subprime sector seem unlikely to seriously spill over to the broader economy or the financial system." —June 5, 2007 Thanks to Selecto for posting that golden oldie from Beranke's greatest hits last night. I also said last year they (The Fed, The Banks) are going to lie all the way until it's in the rear mirror. The games will continue until there is no more ammo then, look out below.

[Islander]

God Milbank I know you are in Conn., but you are overly negative. In the far west things are slow but no pain as yet. Try to find some things that cheer you up. We don't want anyone suffering due to this board. Best, Islander.

[milbank]

Don't worry about me. I am sad that you have such an impression of Connecticut. To more than a few, this is the dream. If you are ever in the NYC area let me know. I'd love to show you around my little realm. As far as where you are, like I said, this baby hasn't landed like it's going to yet. Next year.

Edited by milbank, 10 June 2008 - 09:12 PM.