8 replies to this topic

[hedgehawk]

Folks, I think the March CL contract is going to implode by this coming Friday. Friday we had a huge short covering rally. However we are overbought big time which should result in in rolling over here. You can see we are at the top of the 60 min down trend channel. I think it will do a full retracement of Fridays rally on Tues and Wed. Then implode after the weekly inventories on Thursday if Cushing OK inventories increase then continue the sell off into Friday expiration. I think it will go lower than anyone thinks possible. Mainly due to the Cushing OK inventory situation where NYMEX makes delivery, they are at full or over capacity........ This forecast is for the March contract only.

Edited by hedgehawk, 15 February 2009 - 09:31 PM.

[selecto]

Nice work.

[BWTrader]

USO is 50% cash right here. BW

[Rogerdodger]

I keep hearing reports about all of these tankers loaded with crude, just floating around, waiting for the price to go back up.

[hedgehawk]

I keep hearing reports about all of these tankers loaded with crude, just floating around, waiting for the price to go back up.

RD, you know there is "to much" crude when the EIA has to change their chart to accomodate the record high inventory. This skews the depth of the chart as the scale is changed so visually it looks less bearish since the top line is much higher. Previously the chart went to 350M BBL now last week it changed to 365M BBL. I wonder how the EIA chose 365M BBL, does this mean they think (or know) it will go that high?

[selecto]

There are not as many places to off load it. If a refinery can't ship product it can't take in crude.
We had lots of tankers standing off shore here in St. Croix, because HOVENSA couldn't get rid
of what they had already made.

I suppose if you use a tanker tied up someplace cheap with a skeleton crew, it might do for storage,
but a crewed tanker lying-to is going to run you 25 grand a day.

[Kimston]

I'm still holding short from 48.41 on 1/26: http://www.traders-t...howtopic=100736

I had some cycle work looking for lows in mid to late Feb, but trend and pattern are more important than cycles in strong trending markets. My targets based on triangle projections are 24 area and possibly 17 if that doesn't hold. Then nice rally.

Nat Gas is eventually going to 3.00. Sell rallies till we get there.

Kimston

[Cirrus]

A couple things on CL: 1. It's a global market and Cushing is a roach motel for CL...easy to get CL in and hard to get CL out. Cushing is reliant on midwest refining capacity for the most part to use up inventory. It's landlocked and the pipeline structure makes it easy to get supply in but there really aren't pipelines out to key gulf hubs and refinery system. 2. Pricing of other grades like Brent and Tapis are better indicators of global demand. OECD inventories are actually flat to down despite US inventories. 3. OPEC cuts will be hitting the market over the coming weeks. 4. Put 1 and 2 together and it's obvious why Brent is trading at 10 plus $ premium despite historically trading at a 1 to 3 $ discount. Wait another 9 to 12 months when 4 to 5 mbpd of depletion hit the markets. I think global CL prices trade between 35 and 60 for another 6 to 8 months and then we break above 75 sometime next winter.

[thespookyone]

Hedge, Great work, and-agreed. And it's little dog "gold" tooo, bwahahaha.