11 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Studying IT advances over this decade I have noticed that in each one, at some point after the initial surge, NYMO and NAMO drop back to zero plus or minus 10 or 15, then the market blasts off again, just like we saw this week. Interestingly that blast off tends to mark about the mid point of the entire IT advance.

As posted earlier, I have expected this rally to approach the 13 month MA (see bottom chart). That comes in somewhere around 1000, depending on when we get there- the sooner we hit it, the higher the number, since it is falling over time. Using this push as the half way point also yeilds the 1000 target area.

If correct, expect to see new daily highs climb to around 300 area, and BPCOMPQ move up to around 70 area, before the IT advance has run its full course. Fwiw. good trading, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRINQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p91351991372&a=132242060&r=5671.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p81980886219&a=132242143&r=5289.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p19594754399&a=132241851&r=7973.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p26405502349&a=132240665&r=2149.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p10831498101&a=132242597&r=3475.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p09668266403&a=132243114&r=7420.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p96303392716&a=132243312&r=5145.png
xxxx

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-28&i=p39183268817&a=149688849&r=5834.png

[blackprince]

Thank you VERY much for that info. It is going to put money in my pocket.

[zoropb]

Studying IT advances over this decade I have noticed that in each one, at some point after the initial surge, NYMO and NAMO drop back to zero plus or minus 10 or 15, then the market blasts off again, just like we saw this week. Interestingly that blast off tends to mark about the mid point of the entire IT advance.

As posted earlier, I have expected this rally to approach the 13 month MA (see bottom chart). That comes in somewhere around 1000, depending on when we get there- the sooner we hit it, the higher the number, since it is falling over time. Using this push as the half way point also yeilds the 1000 target area.

If correct, expect to see new daily highs climb to around 300 area, and BPCOMPQ move up to around 70 area, before the IT advance has run its full course. Fwiw. good trading, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRINQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p91351991372&a=132242060&r=5671.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p81980886219&a=132242143&r=5289.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p19594754399&a=132241851&r=7973.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p26405502349&a=132240665&r=2149.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p10831498101&a=132242597&r=3475.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p09668266403&a=132243114&r=7420.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p96303392716&a=132243312&r=5145.png
xxxx

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-28&i=p39183268817&a=149688849&r=5834.png

Nice work on the IT Don thanks for your input.

You got me thinking again to look at the 29 low initial pop again and if we use the week of the low to top was about same as here by a day or two and about same area of %. So we are at a critical point... if it should rally past here by more than say end of day tomorrow that similar pattern will be off but if it was a ST top then we follow the pattern of a 2 week chop as I said is likely. Since we made a 10 point higher high on SPX than my last figures a low would be around 796 if the pattern were to repeat closely and we make no more new highs for about 3-4 weeks. Humbles chart today shows a similar pattern before the next rocket blast off. We will get our answer this week.

I think most of us IT bullish folks are all looking at that 200 day kiss at the very least on an IT... and to sell the (its a new bull to Joe six pack) a few weeks over the 200 day and kiss the 13 month would be just the ticket to unload the bag of goodies to them again.

Z

Edited by zoropb, 10 April 2009 - 04:11 PM.

[pedro]

>>>As posted earlier, I have expected this rally to approach the 13 month MA (see bottom chart). That comes in somewhere around 1000, depending on when we get there- the sooner we hit it, the higher the number, since it is falling over time. Using this push as the half way point also yeilds the 1000 target area.<<<< Could be. But the e-wavers I follow have us in an ABC into that 200dma/13m kiss where A started Mar 6. So timewise, we could be half way, but I suspect the next large move is down .. then back up into that kiss. TWT

Edited by pedro, 10 April 2009 - 04:29 PM.

[ken29]

IMHO, I think we are more than half way there and I don't think the market has enough momentum to get to the 1000's area

[pdx5]

A very informative post IYB, thanks. IT top could occur in a couple of months barring unforeseen events. Sell in May and go away is where I am at this point.

[cp1]

Thanks Don. Good work...much appreciated. CP1

[Rogerdodger]

I have noticed that in each one, at some point after the initial surge, NYMO and NAMO drop back to zero plus or minus 10 or 15, then the market blasts off again.

Sell in May and go away is where I am at this point.

These comments fit in with Terry Laundry's observations.
His current T lasts into May. He feels that a pullback will then come but he has a bullish bias until nearer year's end.
He is more favorable towards China than US stocks for reasons mentioned in his update.

[humble1]

rodo: can you supply a date in may for the TL high?

[thespookyone]

Love your internals work. For myself, the NYA50R is telling me we correct here-and fast, before we complete your move up.