12 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

I found this on Laundry's update site.
It is dated Sept 1st (although I think I posted mine first!)

Volume Oscillator pointed to a mid-week bottom: LINK

I was looking at MCO, plus:

9/02/09
Rogerdodger:
Chance of holding here? Sept. 14th Top?
Tick, sentiment & MCO Look like the early July

This coming week is post Labor Day shortened, and usually an up day.
Then WWW.
I had a price echo pointing to the 10th.
But you can see in the Volume Oscillator chart linked above, a T ends mid month.
(Shhhh...it's also a Bradley date.)
What's really strange, when the larger T ends in late October...it's also a Bradley date!


Summary:
I expect more upside with some chop, and topping mid-month.
Seasonally, we should see some selling and I have been predicting a low at the end of Sept. to fit my 17 day cycle. Then a scary rally to the end of the October T as we near Halloween! BOO!
(Pure BS all the way and worth what you paid for it.)

Edited by Rogerdodger, 05 September 2009 - 10:57 AM.

[q4wer]

congrats! how did you overcome this:

VIX higher lows. Now looks like last September, Begins pushing upper BB


Other chances: 9/14 might be a high, and some correction, but cannot rule out middle oct as a higher high spx 1150.
if sept has been bad after election year always, your chance could be good.

Edited by q4wer, 05 September 2009 - 11:20 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

Here's another thing I was looking at for the bottom.
Look at the RSI 2 and 5 readings on the 2nd.
Both were oversold but price stabilized.
Now we are getting nearer to overbought.
However, Slow STO looks like it could go up all week.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=p81963947807&a=94546561&are=8166.png

[Rogerdodger]

congrats! how did you overcome this:

VIX higher lows. Now looks like last September, Begins pushing upper BB


Other chances: 9/14 might be a high, and some correction, but cannot rule out middle oct as a higher high spx 1150.
if sept has been bad after election year always, your chance could be good.

Note that my VIX post was at 9:40 pm.
The next post, an hour later, at 10:40pm pointed out a potential for the s/t bottom.
Try to keep up!
I study various charts and often don't see anything I think worthy of posting.
I thought both were interesting, if not conflicting.

I find the VIX not too good at predicting, but more as a confirming indicator.
VIX looked like a year ago UNTIL it strongly turned back down and the VIX:SPX ratio turned back in bull mode (just barely), which it never did last Sept.
However, I'm still seeing a possible higher highs in place on the VIX with RSI divergence on the SPX.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p91507090784&a=27927380&are=8216.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 05 September 2009 - 11:48 AM.

[skott]

what did larry's oscillator tool look like in sept 2008? even better what did it look like the last 4 months of 2008?

Edited by skott, 05 September 2009 - 02:26 PM.

[Lee48]

Good stuff Roger, you and Laundry are always up to something worth paying attention to.
I also use some of the same, like the $vix fullsto near 80 is time for a bounce. $nymo was oversold.
$nyad is holding up just fine. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA...id=p92392219123

eem was up Wed and the financials are hanging in there. Was good enough for me to go long eem and sso till we get overbought again.

I'm not a big fan, but Prechter was interesting on Financial Sense. Deflation or inflation....

http://www.financial...m/fsn/main.html

[Rogerdodger]

Good stuff Roger, you and Laundry are always up to something worth paying attention to.

Thanks.
I found it of interest to learn recently that the blue dots on Terry's Volume Oscillator charts are from Marty Schwartz and his method of counting the number of days the market would rally or decline to predict turns.
CHART LINK

[tradermama]

I found this on Laundry's update site.
It is dated Sept 1st (although I think I posted mine first!)

Volume Oscillator pointed to a mid-week bottom: LINK

I was looking at MCO, plus:

9/02/09
Rogerdodger:
Chance of holding here? Sept. 14th Top?
Tick, sentiment & MCO Look like the early July

This coming week is post Labor Day shortened, and usually an up day.
Then WWW.
I had a price echo pointing to the 10th.
But you can see in the Volume Oscillator chart linked above, a T ends mid month.
(Shhhh...it's also a Bradley date.)
What's really strange, when the larger T ends in late October...it's also a Bradley date!


Summary:
I expect more upside with some chop, and topping mid-month.
Seasonally, we should see some selling and I have been predicting a low at the end of Sept. to fit my 17 day cycle. Then a scary rally to the end of the October T as we near Halloween! BOO!
(Pure BS all the way and worth what you paid for it.)

Rodger,
Do you have a scary rally target? Thanks and I think you've had some great calls. Also, is there a line in the sand that you woulds say, scary rally is out of the question now? Mecury Retrograde starts Monday for 3 weeks..distorts TA..and we are coming up to the Saturn-Uranus Opposition part 3 on Sept 15th but the impact can be felt earlier...The first one was Nov 4, then Feb 5th which were tops and about 2k drop followed that on the Dow.
TM

[dasein]

TM could the mercury retrograde create a rally instead of a drop?

Edited by dasein, 06 September 2009 - 09:33 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

Roger,
Do you have a scary rally target?

This weekly chart below is interesting.
We are approaching the 1 year anniversary of the Sept. 08 crash.
The light blue area seems to be like a gap which could be a magnet.
At the same time, we are having a bit of resistance near the first week of October's top.
Laundry's volume oscillator bottomed last week and is now headed back to the zero line where he expects possible rejection. If it goes back down and makes a higher low, we could see the set-up for the projected late October T top.
If enough doubters are found, nearing 1200 looks possible...
By then, 1150ish is where a downtrend line would be.
IF it were broken, it might provide a throwover top.

Notice all of the "Ifs"?


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2004-06-01&i=p77992803382&a=58427056&are=5914.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 September 2009 - 12:00 PM.