8 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Historic Price Quotes: $TRIN LINK
Wednesday's closing TRIN was 0.28
I could find only a couple of other closes that low in Stockcharts data base, and they were followed by a "spinning top" type of day, just like Thursday's.
There was a .20 on October 28, 2008!
However the intraday volatility of the TRIN has had me questioning if the prints were real or errors.
Today's high was 12.76, closing at 12.46.
5/23 high was 37.83, 5/21 high was 20.37, 5/20 high was 30.51 with a lot of 3's and 4's.
To me this means a dangerous market for swing type traders.
However if you can take short term signals you can take trades that normally would take days to move that much.

There are some similarities in tonight's 12.46 TRIN and December's 10.17 TRIN close.
The December 1, 2008 closing low at 815.69 was not violated for 7 weeks.
It also was a higher low since the market printed 741.02 a week earlier.
Likewise today's print low at 1060.50 was higher than May 25th's 1040.78, although today did have the lowest close.

There are a few differences of course.
But if Monday can close up, we may have a short term bottom, but I believe it's upside is limited.
Everything continues dependent on sovereign debt news, and when your tires lose traction there's no point in looking at your gas gauge.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&i=p84917835693&a=190641364&r=8205.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 June 2010 - 11:58 PM.

[arbman]

I think these breadth readings for extremes have become some of the worst market metrics to compare to the past. Although there are extremes being recorded undeniably, the action is completely controlled by the program trading. So, the market is being bought and sold altogether making the breadth readings just absurd. These 10:1 or 1:10 or more extreme readings have started to become so distorted only after 2007, when they removed the up tick rule, adopted the decimalization, so it is easier to mark issues up and down creating extremes. The bottom line is although extreme, these numbers are not that meaningful beyond 5:1 in my opinion, they just show extreme reach of program trading across the board to all stocks...

[Rogerdodger]

VidKid just sent me a nice chart which also shows an extreme oversold TRIN on Feb 23rd, 2009. As we know the March bottom was still 2 weeks ahead and 100 points lower. 1050 isn't that far above 950.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 June 2010 - 11:55 PM.

[arbman]

The 930-950 is a target for fall, unfortunately the moving average for the 32-33 wk cycle has turned down about 2 weeks ago, so it is a certainty. It seems like we are going there in a hurry now...

[Rogerdodger]

I think these breadth readings for extremes have become some of the worst market metrics to compare to the past. Although there are extremes being recorded undeniably, the action is completely controlled by the program trading. So, the market is being bought and sold altogether making the breadth readings just absurd. These 10:1 or 1:10 or more extreme readings have started to become so distorted only after 2007, when they removed the up tick rule, adopted the decimalization, so it is easier to mark issues up and down creating extremes. The bottom line is although extreme, these numbers are not that meaningful beyond 5:1 in my opinion, they just show extreme reach of program trading across the board to all stocks...

And when the volume leader is C at $3.75 trading 1,067,564,735 shares, that can influence TRIN.

[Rogerdodger]

However...
When you display a candle volume chart, the big TRIN numbers relate better to SPY, the #2 volume leader @ 398,475,566.
Look at those fat red candles heading into 3pm as TRIN spikes:

http://stockcharts.c...0332&r=9272.png
Now compare volume candles to C, the #1 volume leader.
The fat volume doesn't come until after the 3 pm TRIN spike.:
http://stockcharts.c...0344&r=2842.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 June 2010 - 11:53 PM.

[arbman]

I do not understand why they are not reverse splitting that stock. It makes no sense to have it trading at $3.75 with a volume over a billion shares... The stock clearly needs an extra digit too... What a rip off!

Edited by arbman, 04 June 2010 - 11:53 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Trillion with a B? Have another beer.

[arbman]

Trillion with a B?

Have another beer.

What are you talking about? What trillion?!?