9 replies to this topic

[IYB]

RD, just wondering what you have for the last three days before Labor Day from Burk and the T Almanac, if you get a chance. TIA, D

[Rogerdodger]

Buy the book!
I just updated the Mike Burk seasonal for the 2nd presidential year.
I'd say buy the next dip and sell the rally after.

Credit to Mike Burk at Safehaven: http://www.safehaven...tec...y-22-2010
Notice that cute little fish-hook at month's end?
We got it today.
Also I note that so far each month has finished up or down as called for except for July which is "normally" flat but was up a bunch this year.
If you remove July's rally, August is right where is is "supposed" to be.
PS: This applies to the SPX. See Mike's link above to see the Dow, Nasdaq and R2K, which vary slightly

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 August 2010 - 11:46 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

From Stock Trader's Almanac: Monday had a bear. That was fur real. A bull for tomorrow. "Sept 1st, 1998 was up 3.9%(another 2nd Presidential year). Bullishness before Labor day is influenced by strength the first day of September." (6 days of strength) Then it says: "Major Market Instability Leading into Labor Day Lately Triple Digit Dow Moves Have Become Commonplace." (See Mike Burk's chart) The day after Labor day the DOW has been up 12 of the Last 15. 1998 was up 5%! My bottom line: It seems that Labor Day is late this year but I'm guessing that all else being equal, shorting the post Labor day rally, if it happens would make you some money. Or shorting any early September rally would be the seasonal call. Especially when the 7 sentinels are in a bear phase.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 August 2010 - 07:53 PM.

[IYB]

Thanks Roger. VM Appreciated. {got too many books to read already}

[Rogerdodger]

You didn't ask about the Bradley, which nailed the August top.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 August 2010 - 08:31 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

From Trader's Talk New Market Analysis area:

September has the dubious honor of being the worst month of the year and was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four banner years from 1996-1998 in the halcyon days of the dot.com bubble madness. Midterm Septembers are even worse; having punished investors ahead of eight October midterm bottoms since WWII. Though the month has opened strong 11 of the last 15 years, once the summer tans begin to fade and the kids head back to school, fund managers tend to clean house as the end of the third quarter approaches, causing some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. Recent substantial declines also occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (Dow: -11.1%) and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (Dow: -6.0%).

September Triple Witching is not to be trifled with. The Russell 2000 has been down eight of the last eleven years on Monday with Dow and S&P also tending to be flat or down. Triple-Witching Friday has improved lately with Dow up six straight and seven of the last eight. Triple-Witching Week can be cruel, especially in bear markets, falling in seven of the last eleven years. The week after Triple Witching has been brutal, down 16 of the last 20, averaging a Dow loss of –1.1%.

Over the years the few days before the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend has become prime vacation time. Back in the first half of the 20th Century approximately one fourth of the country worked on farms as compared to less than 2% nowadays. Business activity ahead of the long weekend was more energetic in the old days. From 1950 through 1977 the three days before Labor Day pushed the Dow Jones Industrials higher in twenty-five of twenty-eight years. Since then bullishness has shifted to the last day before and the two days after. This frequently coincides with early September strength.



www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 August 2010 - 09:36 PM.

[IYB]

Wow. That's a lot of info! But it seems to agree with what my VST indicators are saying. After Tuesday, fogeddaboudit! Last one outta town please turn out the lights.... Thanks RD.

[Rogerdodger]

"This bear is but a cub"
1100 will never be seen again in our lifetime

I feel so naughty being this bearish.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 August 2010 - 11:42 PM.

[Echo]

From Stock Trader's Almanac:
Monday had a bear. That was fur real.

[voltaire]

Surely this is more the case.

late August looks more like a week into Sep.