9 replies to this topic

[dhroz]

After listening to Terry's update this morning I was confused. I normally come away from his broadcasts with a clear understanding of what he says. It seems as though he has decided that the markets could track sideways throught the end of the year. This is a huge divergence from his previous statements. What the... ??

[Data]

That scenario is plausible. The giant head-and-shoulders is 32-34 weeks distance from the April peak. The 2008 H&S was 20 weeks on each side.

[andiron]

hey..terry is not a savant!!

[mmm]

After listening to Terry's update this morning I was confused. I normally come away from his broadcasts with a clear understanding of what he says. It seems as though he has decided that the markets could track sideways throught the end of the year. This is a huge divergence from his previous statements. What the .... ??

I do not know why you say "What the...?". This is the difference between a genius and everyone else. He has the ability to change with the facts. He has done this many times. On a short term basis he can be wrong and that is why he has clearly said he was not a short term trader. As far as I can tell he has never been wrong with the long term picture which he trades in. Learn from what he says and does instead of trying to criticise him for changing his mind.

[dhroz]

After listening to Terry's update this morning I was confused. I normally come away from his broadcasts with a clear understanding of what he says. It seems as though he has decided that the markets could track sideways throught the end of the year. This is a huge divergence from his previous statements. What the .... ??

I do not know why you say "What the...?". This is the difference between a genius and everyone else. He has the ability to change with the facts. He has done this many times. On a short term basis he can be wrong and that is why he has clearly said he was not a short term trader. As far as I can tell he has never been wrong with the long term picture which he trades in. Learn from what he says and does instead of trying to criticise him for changing his mind.

Terry has maintained his position for the past 9 months only to change it today. This past Sunday he stated the market was going down big by the latest, the first few days in September. For months he said August 26th is the day. We know he is no Savant but many of us listen to his "broadcasts" and for a while they seemed plausible.
I guess I am trying to figure out what caused him to abandon his theory so abruptly. He seems to now have gone to gold and says that stocks are not interesting any more.
Oh well another one bites the dust..........

[Rogerdodger]

I think you are reading too much into what I consider Terry's thinking out loud about very short term market action.

[dhroz]

Thanks for your post Roger. I do respect Terry for his work and enjoy his market comments. He reminds me of my physics professor in university. That being said it was just a surprise to me with the sudden about face. You are probably correct saying not to be to concerned with the short term action referenced in his comments. Terry was more than likely thinking faster than I was taking in his information. I hope he can clear up his overall "vision" of the market this Sunday.

I think you are reading too much into what I consider Terry's thinking out loud about very short term market action.

[Rogerdodger]

Audio Download TTFAudiomp320100901
Chart Download SRT20100831pdf

Reviewing Terry's comments tonight:
"The stockmarket is damaged goods in the long term."
He thinks that the market IS TOPPING...but it can be frustrating.
We could get a short rally like the June rally here or there, possibly producing a range bound market before dropping more, depending on the action in his volume oscillator.
But these would not be mega T rallies lasting for months.
He still no doubt is looking for his 40/80 year low in the months ahead.
That's what I'm hearing.

He likes this TGLDX for involvement in gold because it tends to go up whereas gold and miners can cycle back and forth depending on investors short term mood.
He thinks that gold will break out of it's ascending triangle and produce gains for a few months into 2011.
http://stockcharts.c...04-01&en=(today)&i=p34050082005&a=200459446&r=2882.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 September 2010 - 12:12 AM.

[maineman]

guess I am trying to figure out what caused him to abandon his theory so abruptly. He seems to now have gone to gold and says that stocks are not interesting any more" I can't really speak for Terry, so you'll have to ask him. Send him a smart email and he'' get back to you. He "abandoned" stocks serveral months ago because of his conviction regarding the end of this last "T", the falling confidence indicator and the 40/80 year cycle. Since Terry isn't scalping for nickels like some of us are, he simply shifts a large amount of assets in or out of one asset clase. And wait. If you are trader or more importnantyl a leveraged trader and trying to apply his bigger picture wih your one two day swings. As I see it the market, being so oversold yet holding 1040 at least 3 times, along with fairly steep bearish setiment could allow for one hell of a rally, or more like today. But I bet you a nickel we see much lower prices before too long. According to Terry, barring a sideways move from hell, the resuolution will be steep and be perisitent and down. Again if you are short and overleveraged you'll feel some pain. If you 1x positions ,like Dia or SPY or whtever. as long as you've allocated a reasonable portion of your funds it can be "buy and hold. Rememember, the market HAS TO GO DOWN to develop a "cash bulid up phase.

[Cirrus]

guess I am trying to figure out what caused him to abandon his theory so abruptly. He seems to now have gone to gold and says that stocks are not interesting any more" I can't really speak for Terry, so you'll have to ask him. Send him a smart email and he'' get back to you. He "abandoned" stocks serveral months ago because of his conviction regarding the end of this last "T", the falling confidence indicator and the 40/80 year cycle. Since Terry isn't scalping for nickels like some of us are, he simply shifts a large amount of assets in or out of one asset clase. And wait. If you are trader or more importnantyl a leveraged trader and trying to apply his bigger picture wih your one two day swings. As I see it the market, being so oversold yet holding 1040 at least 3 times, along with fairly steep bearish setiment could allow for one hell of a rally, or more like today. But I bet you a nickel we see much lower prices before too long. According to Terry, barring a sideways move from hell, the resuolution will be steep and be perisitent and down. Again if you are short and overleveraged you'll feel some pain. If you 1x positions ,like Dia or SPY or whtever. as long as you've allocated a reasonable portion of your funds it can be "buy and hold. Rememember, the market HAS TO GO DOWN to develop a "cash bulid up phase.

The market will be up almost 6% off the recent low at today's open. Terry has a great feel for the markets and his theory(ies) have done pretty well through the years. I do think he will place market action ahead of any theory which is why he is probably backpeddling. That is what you want to see an expert do when the market is telling him he was wrong....get right.

It is just the open, though, so let's see what happens today.