6 replies to this topic

[totterdell91]

I have had a look at things since this little bit of a rally started. This is my current analysis with notes on board the graphics. It is more of an illustration of my thought process using Andrews techniques, but for the moment the ST up swing has no immediate trouble in front of it. With NFP coming up, I expect volatility, but I will not be biased south unless I see something getting fairly seriously bent to the south.

Mani trend analysis


First sub trend


ST trend


New ST trend

[pedro]

Thanks for sharing.

[porsche911sg]

Congrats wonderful work but most of the time breakout dont work in bear markets.

[thespookyone]

" ST up swing has no immediate trouble in front of it" Outside of being overbought on every time frame, in a confluence of EMA's, showing a corrective structure, momentum waning, the indication by trin the last two days that it was a squeeze and not new buying, the CVI incredibly ovebought,and no MCO support nearby due to the vertical rise,weak volume on the push, ect.

[Echo]

Hi MTGP, Nice propagation of forks and thoughts and how you use them. Thanks for sharing. Lets see how it goes. Doc

[Rogerdodger]

Yep. Ditto.
Thanks for letting me look over your shoulder.

Now could we add a FIBork on the weekly from the Ministry of Peculiar Occurrences?
Look at where today's rally stopped: 38.2% retrace.
So I imagine any more rally has to be looking to the 50% area.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p74034778446&a=207728465&r=5294.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2003-01-02&en=(today)&i=p65425307508&a=58427056&r=9872.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 September 2010 - 11:57 PM.

[totterdell91]

Spooky,

I really dont use indicators a lot. It was really just an exercise in what andrews lines I can draw, and the conclusions I draw from them. I do however quite like the 15,5,3 slow stoch, and when I use Exponential Moving Averages I tend to use 8, 41 and 195, mainly because it is a popular compromise with the analysts I associate with most.

I switched charting packages and ran up this 60 min for a bit of fun. The 60 min stoch does look like it is overbought, but it could stay that way for a little more. Price is above EMA8 and has just supported off it, so it could probably go a little more before it needs to confirm support.



I had a look at the daily slow stoch, and it is very undercooked. Mostly I am just interested in the fact that price is above the base of the blue fork, and to see if there is any reaction when it encounters any of the lines I have drawn. When I get to trade it (although I usually trade the DAX) I will get down to a shorter time frame. At the moment I am just getting the bigger picture stuff for my own benefit, and setting out a thought process.

If price takes a big dive and shatters all the lower lines, it is fine by me, I will take it on board as I get the indications. Same if it goes north. My trading style is based on what pattern I see when price encounters a line, rather than which line I think it might encounter next.