4 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

My Sept 9th post:
"So here's the template:
"It's bad but better than expected."
Previous report was revised, but ignore that now.
Ignore the fact that it was a holiday and unemployment offices were closed.
http://www.traders-t...?...&hl=jobless

So today we read:

Labor Day caused a bump in the jobless claims series. Initial claims in the September 18 week, which doesn't include Labor Day, rose 12,000 to a higher-than-expected 465,000. The prior week, which includes Labor Day, was revised 3,000 higher to 453,000. Adjustments factor in a low level of filings for the shortened week and a high level in the following week as government offices catch up on the work. But the back-up this year exceeded the adjustments, making for the surprise gain and raising questions on how much initial claims are actually improving.

http://www.nasdaq.co...asp?cust=nasdaq

Here's what "they" said after the previous holiday shortened report:
"Finally, jobless claims show solid improvement. Initial claims fell 21,000 in the July 3 week to 454,000 for the lowest level since early May. (prior week revised 3,000 higher to 475,000).
The best weekly improvement since early May... though the level is still slightly higher than a month ago.
Yet conclusions are difficult to draw given possible calendar and seasonal effects tied to the July 4 holiday"
Then on July 22nd we read: "The Labor Department confesses: it was holiday distortions tied to July 4 that held down initial claims in the prior week."

So here's the template:
"It's bad but better than expected."
Previous report was revised, but ignore that now.
Ignore the fact that it was a holiday and unemployment offices were closed.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 September 2010 - 08:24 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

But no doubt the Oct. 8th unemployment report (last one before the elections) will be surprisingly great:

Get ready for a SURGE in the employment report
One day POLL workers considered as new hires!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 September 2010 - 08:27 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

Now watch out at 10am et today.
Existing home sales is due out.

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

[Rogerdodger]

Speaking of existing homes, Here's a deal:

125 units of Fort Myers high-rise condo to be auctioned off
Couldn't even sell at a 60% discount
http://www.news-pres...S/9230343/1075/

This week Related Realty unveiled its plans for an auction at Harborside Event Center downtown. Forty of the units will be sold "absolute," meaning that the lowest bid takes the property however low.
Meanwhile, Related has been sending letters offering discounts ranging up to more than 60 percent to people who backed out of their contracts, said John Ewing, a Fort Lauderdale-based attorney who represents 53 clients who bought units.

In addition, he said, the buyers would get to put 50 percent of their original deposits toward the new purchase.

For example, Ewing said, one client whose contract was for $607,900 was offered the chance to purchase for $216,900: 64 percent off the original price.

Only one of his clients is even considering the offer, Ewing said, adding he's skeptical the units are worth even their reduced price.

"I think it'd be almost impossible to get a standard loan" because one tower is shut down except for one unit and the other is only sparsely occupied by owners, he said.

[Rogerdodger]

The healing process has begun, this is how the National Association of Realtors describes the post-stimulus housing market. Existing home sales rose 7.6 percent in August to a 4.130 million annual rate, up substantially from July's 3.830 million rate (revised from 3.840). Gains swept regions with supply coming down a bit, at a still extremely swollen 11.6 months. Prices are softening, down 1.9 percent to a median $178,600. These results were predicted by the pending homes sales report released early in the month, data that popped higher. Hopefully mid-summer will prove the definitive bottom for the housing market. Today's results will firm expectations for a similar gain in tomorrow's new home sales report.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 September 2010 - 09:13 AM.