13 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Those who know me know that I'm not a big conspiracy buff, but what I'm seeing disturbs me. Last night, the OEX P/C ratio spikes big. The OEX is smart money. Quite the opposite, most of the other P/C's were neutral or Bearish. BUT, the $-weighted SPX, also typically smart money spiked north of 2.0 to. It was as if somebody tipped off the big money and they bought (and payed up for) SPX Puts and the OEX calls. As if...

[arbman]

SPX Puts and the OEX calls

What do you mean? OEX spike means they also bought puts...

Is this a typo or you are saying something else?

[Rogerdodger]

So is the Fat Finger from N. Korea?
NKorea's military command vows 'merciless' military strike against SKorea...
Fires artillery onto island...
South denies seeking redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons...
Returns Fire...
May strike NKorea's missile base...
'Intentional, planned attack'...
Japan prepares for 'any eventuality'...
CHINA WATCHES... WHITE HOUSE CONDEMNS...

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 November 2010 - 10:13 AM.

[jjc]

So is the Fat Finger from N. Korea?

N. Korea the finger controlled by China the hand. Asian CB decisions influence...

[IcOnOcLaSt]

Those who know me know that I'm not a big conspiracy buff, but what I'm seeing disturbs me.

Last night, the OEX P/C ratio spikes big. The OEX is smart money. Quite the opposite, most of the other P/C's were neutral or Bearish.

BUT, the $-weighted SPX, also typically smart money spiked north of 2.0 to. It was as if somebody tipped off the big money and they bought (and payed up for) SPX Puts and the OEX calls.

As if...

i couldnt believe waking up to this news after seeing the oex spike last night.....this stuff is rigged

[OEXCHAOS]

typo... OEX Puts.

[Pricewatcher]

Those who know me know that I'm not a big conspiracy buff, but what I'm seeing disturbs me.

Last night, the OEX P/C ratio spikes big. The OEX is smart money. Quite the opposite, most of the other P/C's were neutral or Bearish.

BUT, the $-weighted SPX, also typically smart money spiked north of 2.0 to. It was as if somebody tipped off the big money and they bought (and payed up for) SPX Puts and the OEX calls.

As if...

Where can the dollar weighted P/C ratio of the indices be seen?

Or is there a way to easily calculate it from public CBOE data?

[OEXCHAOS]

I get it from HamzeiAnalytics.com. Mark Young WallStreetSentiment.com

[IYB]

Those who know me know that I'm not a big conspiracy buff, but what I'm seeing disturbs me.

Last night, the OEX P/C ratio spikes big. The OEX is smart money. Quite the opposite, most of the other P/C's were neutral or Bearish.

BUT, the $-weighted SPX, also typically smart money spiked north of 2.0 to. It was as if somebody tipped off the big money and they bought (and payed up for) SPX Puts and the OEX calls.

As if...

If we follow that reasoning, then the "tipper" would have had to be be extremely selective and have only "tipped" the index buyers...mainly OEX put buyers, not the equity put buyers. The equity put/call ratio was 0.57, as equity calls were bought with both hands. A far more likely (though I'm sure less "interesting" ) scenario in my mind is that the OEX boys, as always, are simply paying attention to the trend of market internals....

[OEXCHAOS]

Those who know me know that I'm not a big conspiracy buff, but what I'm seeing disturbs me.

Last night, the OEX P/C ratio spikes big. The OEX is smart money. Quite the opposite, most of the other P/C's were neutral or Bearish.

BUT, the $-weighted SPX, also typically smart money spiked north of 2.0 to. It was as if somebody tipped off the big money and they bought (and payed up for) SPX Puts and the OEX calls.

As if...

If we follow that reasoning, then the "tipper" would have had to be be extremely selective and have only "tipped" the index buyers...mainly OEX put buyers, not the equity put buyers. The equity put/call ratio was 0.57, as equity calls were bought with both hands. A far more likely (though I'm sure less "interesting" ) scenario in my mind is that the OEX boys, as always, are simply paying attention to the trend of market internals....

Don,
The thing is, my observation over the years has been that the OEX guys tend to be right. Thus smart money--trend followers? Maybe. I've also noticed that the SPX guys will occasionally pay up for puts, and if they are the only one's doing it, we can expected a sell off. This has been gold in weak markets. They paid 2x more for puts than for calls. That's not just trend following, I think.

Now, knowing what we do about the OEX and SPX options and their liquidity vs. equity options, we'd know that someone tipped could more readily buy puts on those indices AND hide the nature of those purchases through other transactions that appear to be mere program-type trades.

Or, it could be just coincidence. Coincidence that happens over and over again. Coincidence that we can make money from. It probably doesn't matter that the scenario only gives us more confidence to do what we should be doing anyway.

Mark