5 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Initially, after the Dow had dropped more than 1,000 points from May 2 high to June 16 low, the easy call is to expect a plunge to new low. Now that "everyone" seems to have accepted "a bounce", few have given up on "a plunge to new low" still.

Like I said on Thursday, June 16, 2011, " Now that few are expecting it, there's potential for this bounce to turn into a rally beyond expectations". I'm also upgrading my VST bottom call in that same thread to a ST buy signal. I'll upgrade it to IT buy when I have the confirmation.

And, speaking of least expected, while "everyone" is keeping an eye on Greece, the Japanese yen had quietly broken out of a Triple Bottom formation against the Euro. The rise of this pair to me is one of the most significant signals of "risk on" or liquidity.

Rally time continues....

Edited by TechMan, 20 June 2011 - 06:50 PM.

[TechMan]

BTW, I've no idea why this is important. Here's what I had posted on Sunday (yesterday): 6-13 low = 1265 6-15 close = 1265 6-16 open = 1265; close = 1267 6-17 low = 1267 Today low = 1267 I couldn't figure out the significance of 1267 or 1265, but they seemed to be.

[TechMan]

BTW, I've no idea why this is important. Here's what I had posted on Sunday (yesterday):

6-13 low = 1265
6-15 close = 1265
6-16 open = 1265; close = 1267
6-17 low = 1267
Today low = 1267

I couldn't figure out the significance of 1267 or 1265, but they seemed to be.

Hmmm... ??? (Obviously, this is bothering me....)

Edited by TechMan, 20 June 2011 - 08:14 PM.

[DrSP]

Techman, A rally as small as 4 SPX points is being swiftly followed by unloading of stocks of a particular sector everyday. The daily indicators are all on bullish mode but price action is dull. We may not go down just because price action is dull but chances of massive rally are low ATM, unless things change. A double POMO day today resulted in slight gain today, that explains it all.

[TechMan]

Techman, A rally as small as 4 SPX points is being swiftly followed by unloading of stocks of a particular sector everyday. The daily indicators are all on bullish mode but price action is dull. We may not go down just because price action is dull but chances of massive rally are low ATM, unless things change.

A double POMO day today resulted in slight gain today, that explains it all.

Actually, this pace of recovering fits my "timetable" much better than a big bang. There's no doubt at this point the market's still fragile. Traders are going to explore that fragility by moving money in and out of different sectors. It's nothing unusual. What would be unusual is to see all sectors firing on all cylinders at this moment. And, that would make me very suspicious very quickly.

As far as the "daily indicators" go, they weren't bullish at all when I called the VST bottom on 6/16. I don't use these pop indicators for these calls; I use them only for reference purposes.

You can attribute this or that to the Fed like most people do, but I've rarely done that, if ever. If the Fed is already a "known" factor, that factor should already be in your trading system. You'd never see me blaming the Fed for my bad calls as well as the good ones.

[TechMan]

Similarity is uncanny....