17 replies to this topic

[IYB]

I had just sent these charts as a PM to Arbman and decided to post them here as well. I saw today as the completion of the pattern to which I'd referred Saturday, comparing the current market to the markets which followed the NYMO extreme lows of 2007, 2008, 2010. Just as was the case here, each of those past extreme McO's were followed by a quick retest and a TRIN extreme within a couple of days, then a rather sharp 3-day spike to the zero-line-retrace on McO, then a slide to NEW LOWS ON SPX. I see today as the short term top as were August 8, 2007, October 20, 2008, May 12, 2010. In each case we had new closing lows on SPX within six trading days.

Markets may not follow the pattern "perfectly", but I think the general pattern will prevail. Good trading.

Edited by IYB, 15 August 2011 - 09:36 PM.

[thespookyone]

Nice call D. The CVI and STVO look to be calling a top in the next couple days or so. The trin on the way up has been screaming squeeze-not new buyers. I prefer about another 28 points of pop here, but realize it will be incredibly hard to get. That said, new lows ARE dead ahead, and the panic selling of the unwilling should be impressive. Thanks for the heads up, and fine trading to you, as well.

[Rogerdodger]

That's similar to what I have been looking at.
We pulled right back to the October-November lows.
We will soon know.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 August 2011 - 10:08 PM.

[arbman]

The cumulative intraday tick was also divergent in the last 2 hours, a pull back was definitely due, but given the down trend perhaps it follows through. The leadership was awkward with energy and utilities rallying together and the banks squeezing hard, or it seemed. The equity P/C ratio was the only issue for me, there was heavy hedging despite the rally and it was the only reason I refrained from pulling the trigger big, but I could not resist and sold short a tad in AH, I intend to add if we see yet one more high, but it may never come before significantly lower or at least pulling back violently. This was a spot a partial short could pay off well or you could average if we see 1230s or so. OTOH, if it gaps down big, I can add to the position in any rally back up with comfort as my average will be somewhat higher. Thank you D for sharing your findings, Very Best.

[SemiBizz]

Yes, this would be a logical completion point here with today's high of 1204.49. All set to jump the creek eh?

However I've seen a lot of these "just under the resistance" setups never test the resistance, gap down the next day and seeyah...

From today's SPX Forecast:

SPX moved higher on progressively lighter volume again on Monday, falling short of a test of the 1205 Monthly Resistance and that was not a surprise, because we recognized that this 1200 area can be sticky... that's what we saw on Monday. Now the progressively lighter volume bounce is just indicative of a countertrend, so we are set up to go lower once volume returns

Monthly SPX Chart

[NAV]

IYB, I overall agree with your assessment that there's more work to be done on the downside, based on my read of daily charts which still remains on a sell. If we selloff from the get-go tomorow or gap-down, then that's all she wrote. My hourly model is still on a buy.

[vitaminm]

Nymo.........R@65----------S@ -22.......... -89..........-129 one may short when rsi2<rsi3 spx...daily.S@1156.....1121

[Echo]

Hey Don. Got to the 382 FR of the whole enchilada down from May 1 or the 1204 cash mark. With that, the components of the various mco for many of the indexes and most of the 9 spx sectors show a snapback of the 10% trend to the zeroline. The 5% trend components are still negative. This rally is purely corrective. Moreover, the broad market as depicted by the nasdaq, midcaps and smallcaps don't even have a zeroline snapback for the 10% trend. Neither does the financials (duh). They could take it to the .500 FR in the 1225-1236 range, but I doubt it. Doc

[arbman]

The market is under tremendous pressure, but I think it absorbed it well so far. We may see one more high. I put my stops at break even, I will not add a new position here unless the support fails at 1190 and tests from below.

[SemiBizz]

They could take it to the .500 FR in the 1225-1236 range, but I doubt it.

If 1205 breaks, we have resistance now at 1222.