22 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

The Median NAAIM pollee is FLAT. Zero long exposure.

This is how the market looked the last time we saw these readings.



Current chart:

[senorBS]

The Median NAAIM pollee is FLAT. Zero long exposure.

This is how the market looked the last time we saw these readings.

Gracias Mark, and it only took a 20% or so decline in the indices to get it there, rather hard to believe

Senor

[Dex]

The Median NAAIM pollee is FLAT. Zero long exposure.

This is how the market looked the last time we saw these readings.

At what point/date on the chart should I be looking at for the NAAIM being flat?

[senorBS]

The Median NAAIM pollee is FLAT. Zero long exposure.

This is how the market looked the last time we saw these readings.

At what point/date on the chart should I be looking at for the NAAIM being flat?

I assume it's the lower bars at the zero level

Senor

[TechMan]

The Median NAAIM pollee is FLAT. Zero long exposure.

This is how the market looked the last time we saw these readings.

At what point/date on the chart should I be looking at for the NAAIM being flat?

[DrSP]

Mark, I definitely see your point. It means we could see a waterfall decline any day while we are happily sleeping. Ofcourse, the NAAIM measures weeks and months as very narrow period. So, the "day" could be today or next week ....I reckon we should always have a VXX pill in the body of our portfolio so we can sleep somewhat peacefully.

Many of us are comparing the current fractals to Jan. 2008 - April 2008. Here is the NAAIM for that period.



We can see there were above 20% of the managers being bullish during the first 1/2 of 2008 and that was the low. From that standpoint, I doubt we can compare that period to that of now.

Edited by DrSP, 29 September 2011 - 08:25 PM.

[voecklen]

DrSP, You better check that chart again if you think it indicates a waterfall. It could just as easily mean a skyrocket. Look more closely. Sort of a rorschach test.

[DrSP]

voecklen, I understood the chart and commented on it. The small blocks constitute actually 1 - 2 months = 8 weeks = 40 days. In all cases when sentiment was close to 0, you first saw a 20% decline before you saw a rally. Did we see that now? You know. We may decline as well as rally anytime within the next 1 - 2 months, yes. But, would the rally come just tomorrow? This time could be different. We could see a rally first starting tomorrow but that would mean that Ben is flying by himself without his helicopter. Like pig.

Here are the current blocks:

http://www.johnrothe...agers-thinking/

[voecklen]

I'm glad I don't have money invested with you.

[DrSP]

Thank you, voecklen. I encourage such comments.

Of note, we find that this study does not imply some inherent failure of active investment management. In fact, exposure levels often indicated managers were well positioned during extended market moves. Since managers are not typically very short-term traders, one cannot conclude anything about active investment management from very short-term adverse moves, other than such are part and parcel of investing in equity markets.

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=116382