22 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Bump. I have added a current chart to the original post.

[pdx5]

Mutual funds cash position is barely over 2%. So that will not be much help for market support during a drop in stock prices.

http://home.comcast....Cash_Levels.htm

I have some strong opinions on this--and am about to publish an article on such, as a matter of fact--BUT, I don't view this as meaningful to the market. The consultants drive the cash levels, not the management decisions of the advisors. It's just not a good timing tool.

M

Agree completely it is not a "timing" tool. But for those of us who trade only a few times in a year, this type of data has more meaning. I usually start going long in November, but will be more cautious due to low cash levels in mutual funds.

[OEXCHAOS]

Mutual funds cash position is barely over 2%. So that will not be much help for market support during a drop in stock prices.

http://home.comcast....Cash_Levels.htm

I have some strong opinions on this--and am about to publish an article on such, as a matter of fact--BUT, I don't view this as meaningful to the market. The consultants drive the cash levels, not the management decisions of the advisors. It's just not a good timing tool.

M

Agree completely it is not a "timing" tool. But for those of us who trade only a few times in a year, this type of data has more meaning. I usually start going long in November, but will be more cautious due to low cash levels in mutual funds.

I mean this with respect and offer it just for your consideration.

I think you're doing the right thing for the wrong reasons. A) You're going in at about the best statistical time of year. Move it up or back a bit based upon context or set up but it's just a statistical winner. The cash levels at the funds matter less, IMO than the hedging that's going on AND whether or not we're in a Bear market. Since we're in a Bear Market, you want to be careful and to limit exposure until you have a near PERFECT bottom set up. Screw cash levels in the funds that will lose business if they hold too much. Also note, they MAY be buying some of the massive amounts of new SH shares (or other short funds/etf's). It doesn't show as cash but in fact it's better than.

Just a thought.