15 replies to this topic

[MikeyG]

That is what my quarterly fundamental model is saying...

I use this in conjunction with technical indicators to make decisions, although usually it will show first in this model and then bleed through to price...

Accuracy of the model has been 85% since mid 2009...

Meaning the quarter it shows a buy, the market has been higher 3 months later and the opposite for a sell (this is the first sell since mid 2011)...

For those looking for a quick trade or fast money, this is not it...

This is a play for the 3-6 months...

Good luck everyone...




Oh and check out Ben's convoluted way of thinking...





Go to minute 17:30 and watch Ben's answer to the question if he is helping Wall St or Main St...

This is why this guy needs to go, I am starting to think he and the other members live in a fantasy world...

[MikeyG]

I would like to add that pending the US economy going back into a recession in the next couple quarters, this should just be a correction back to 1350 area...

Edited by MikeyG, 14 September 2012 - 10:21 AM.

[andr99]

Best Shorting Opportunity

Pay attention to what you write..............Ben might be tempted to launch QE4 after reading your post He will be remembered as the one who caused the biggest depression since WW2

[NAV]

Well, in my early years of trading, i belonged to the school "Fed is pushing on a string". Trading taught me the hard way "Don't fight the Fed". When the Fed announces some policy decision, which floods the system with liquidity, and the market responds with a range expansion, i have learn't to go with the flow. The power of central banks should not be underestimated IMO. Yes Bernanke will fail someday, the Fed will fail someday, the U.S Govt. will fail someday - the natural forces will overwhelm them. I have realized that it's not something that can be measured in years, but in decades. It's a futile intellectual effort to time that day of reckoning. It's monetarily disastrous to trade with such a perspective.

Having said that i have a very low opinion of Bernanke and his policies. But the irony of it all is that two of the disastrous Fed chairmans, Greenspan and Bernanke have gotten away with all their reckless monetary policies - the former who once said, he did not understand what constitutes money supply and the latter who does not understand what money is.

As for the "Best shorting opportunity", you may be right. I have no clue. I will know it unambiguously when it happens.

Edited by NAV, 14 September 2012 - 11:01 AM.

[andiron]

BEN+DRAGHI blitz should maintain the uptrend for few months unless a bigger and unforeseen calamity strikes quick... however, there are always ST shorting opportunity..perhaps now...

[MikeyG]

This call has nothing to do with policy makers... And it's not a fast money trade either... We have 85% chance of being lower than the top today 3 months from now... Trade that statistic as you wish...

[NAV]

We have 85% chance of being lower than the top today 3 months from now...

What's the max historical drawdown, if one uses this statistical measure ?

Edited by NAV, 14 September 2012 - 11:15 AM.

[ogm]

I think Fed has shot its last bullet and made themselves irrelevant now. Bernanke is simply now seen as a misguided madman and is going to lose credibility very fast. No sound monetary policy is being made here. This rally may fail faster then many think. And once it fails, there is no more endgame. What will the Fed do ? print more ? they'll look like a bunch of fools and maniacs. Will they have any credibility left if after all this QE fails over and over they'll try to double down on it ? They have cornered themselves.

[CRUISENAL]

I think BB knows exactly the problem and he is feeling the heat really bad. I would suggest he is scared of the consequences he see ahead. I would bet that he will not be around too much longer when he sees the whole thing start to crumble. He will see the writing on the wall and knows he can't save it. He is like on a High meter diving board and is walking out towards the end of it. He knows he is getting close to the end of the board and has never dove off it before. I feel he showed his fear yesterday. IMO he is very uncomfortable in his own skin! What's sad is, is that he and Obama admit they are basically in an experiment. They are likely to find out this experiment is about to fail. Too bad so many people in our society don't get it. I am afraid the experiment is about to fail at the cost to all Americans. Very sad! Alan

I think Fed has shot its last bullet and made themselves irrelevant now. Bernanke is simply now seen as a misguided madman and is going to lose credibility very fast. No sound monetary policy is being made here. This rally may fail faster then many think. And once it fails, there is no more endgame. What will the Fed do ? print more ? they'll look like a bunch of fools and maniacs. Will they have any credibility left if after all this QE fails over and over they'll try to double down on it ?
They have cornered themselves.

[MikeyG]

We have 85% chance of being lower than the top today 3 months from now...

What's the max historical drawdown, if one uses this statistical measure ?

Great question NAV...

I don't use this model as buy and hold basis or short and hold for the quarter...

Since Jan 2010 there has been all buy signals for the quarter except the second and third quarter of 2011...

One can use this as bias to there trades...