15 replies to this topic

[andr99]

I think Fed has shot its last bullet and made themselves irrelevant now. Bernanke is simply now seen as a misguided madman and is going to lose credibility very fast. No sound monetary policy is being made here. This rally may fail faster then many think. And once it fails, there is no more endgame. What will the Fed do ? print more ? they'll look like a bunch of fools and maniacs. Will they have any credibility left if after all this QE fails over and over they'll try to double down on it ?
They have cornered themselves.

I think you have done a great job lately and I agree with your opinion expressed above about this fake rally, but if you take a look at the chart below you see that the dax is still 5% away from letting its indicator touch the upper trend line which thing marked all the most important dax tops in the last years. Unfortunately 5% is not a little bit, it's a lot. 7800 dax marks the touch of the upper trend line in the charted indicator. I have manually changed today's daily data to see where the touch is and that's where it is. The chart then has been re-taken to its correct daily value

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/2omkt

I think 7800 may be in the cards and then a lateral sideways move for three months before the big drop is what we have at the horizon. The sp will get to 1550 imo.

Edited by andr99, 14 September 2012 - 11:48 AM.

[ogm]

Could be. right now the market is in a state of panic. Panics are unpredicatable. Some people are panicing because its going up and they are not on board, others panicing because they are trying to hide in stocks from Ben Bernanke's printing press. Can be 5% can be 10% can double..lol. But once this ends, this ends. No end game here anymore.

[thespookyone]

I fully believe you'll see all time highs in the SPX first. It's a fine place to start a 100 point drawdown on any short here, imho. However, the market can always use new fuel, so go at it.

Edited by thespookyone, 14 September 2012 - 12:05 PM.

[thespookyone]

Dupe

Edited by thespookyone, 14 September 2012 - 12:05 PM.

[ogm]

I fully believe you'll see all time highs in the SPX first.

It's a fine place to start a 100 point drawdown on any short here, imho. However, the market can always use new fuel, so go at it.

I'm just taking it one day at a time

Euro is weakening now, VIX climbing, AD softening. Lets see if they can goose up the close or profit taking finally kicks in.

I think by now every single short in this market should've covered. So its up to the real buyers.

Edited by ogm, 14 September 2012 - 12:17 PM.

[thespookyone]

I fully believe you'll see all time highs in the SPX first.

It's a fine place to start a 100 point drawdown on any short here, imho. However, the market can always use new fuel, so go at it.

I'm just taking it one day at a time

Euro is weakening now, VIX climbing, AD softening. Lets see if they can goose up the close or profit taking finally kicks in.

I think by now every single short in this market should've covered. So its up to the real buyers.

As well we all should-one day at a time. Although, by now I'm taking it a week or week and a half at a time. I change my time frame as the market context changes. However, I'll coment here that I think we are quickly approaching a space in time where longer term entries may be in order-as I feel corrections will be small and fast-we've seen it trending that way already in the last 100 SPX points-but it will get more intense. Pullbacks for entry will be harder and harder to get, Now having said the bit about new all time highs, it's not a lock (yet) I just greatly favor the odds of it, given the data I study. And really, that's all this game is about-probability of odds/risk reward, eh?

In 35+ years of trading I've never seen weaker bears, nor ones so quick on the trigger. The bearish traders I know are again calling this morning top "The Top" while we are nowhere near even testing the last breakout. So, thus far, our correction of yesterdays 200 point upmove is another 53 points up The correction here will speak volumes about our path forward, and scrutiny of it will pay off. While the bears howl that they were right, hit paydirt, ect.-I'll be watching what outperforms on the drop-and scrutinize moneyflow-to see where the freshest, fastest new ponys lie.

Good fortune on your trades.