20 replies to this topic

[Tor]

Mark Leibovit (top timer digest timer) was just interviewed on radio and he thinks a Christmas rally is coming. He is looking for 1650 SPX for 2008 before the next recession lows going into 2009-2010.

yea right...........like 1650 by 2008. thats almost impossible i would say.

[vitaminm]

1525 1490 1480 SPX.........R/S 1406 1380

[IndexTrader]

I thought the official Santa Claus rally was just the last few days before Christmas. This year though the way the calendar lays out makes it look like the Santa rally, if there is one, has to be this next week, somewhat earlier than the traditional Santa rally. To be generous to the bulls, the best case here is that we are in the process of a test of the November lows. Frankly though, I think last week's action was ominous. That weekly candle is really negative. We faked the move above the downtrend line from the top and above a declining 50-day average. We're now back below the 50 day which is starting to accelerate to the downside, the 200-day which is flat now, and could easily start to decline with a downside move. In fact, it wouldn't take much for the 50 day to cross the 200 day. My personal opinion is that we are preparing for a big move on the downside, Santa Claus notwithstanding. That said, I'm trading each day, day by day. No positions at this time. Short term we've got plenty of resistance above here: 1500, 1507, 1512....all basis the March ES. A break below 1470 targets 1410 basis March....the November lows. My FF....welcome to the bear market. IT

[Gary Smith]

Here's some research by Hulbert on the fabled Santa Claus rally. It's generally considered to be the week between Christmas and New Year's.


http://www.marketwat...dist=TNMostRead


All I care about are coal stocks as I think that is the place to be. As for the the overall market haven't a clue except that it sure has had a lot thrown at in 2007 and it is still standing quite well as evidenced by the positive returns in the major averages such as the Dow and Nasdaq. I'm thinking NAV's analysis will prove to be spot-on for 2008.

[pdx5]

I can guarantee there will be no Santa Rally in 2007. I just added to my longs. That action should kill any chance for a rally.

[Rogerdodger]

34 years of Santa rally posted above. LINK

[milbank]

Here's some research by Hulbert on the fabled Santa Claus rally. It's generally considered to be the week between Christmas and New Year's.


http://www.marketwat...dist=TNMostRead


All I care about are coal stocks as I think that is the place to be. As for the the overall market haven't a clue except that it sure has had a lot thrown at in 2007 and it is still standing quite well as evidenced by the positive returns in the major averages such as the Dow and Nasdaq. I'm thinking NAV's analysis will prove to be spot-on for 2008.

You're unique Gary.
Someone getting a lump of coal for Christmas and being happy about it.

Edited by milbank, 15 December 2007 - 05:27 PM.

[KnowNuttin2]

I thought the official Santa Claus rally was just the last few days before Christmas. This year though the way the calendar lays out makes it look like the Santa rally, if there is one, has to be this next week, somewhat earlier than the traditional Santa rally.

To be generous to the bulls, the best case here is that we are in the process of a test of the November lows. Frankly though, I think last week's action was ominous. That weekly candle is really negative. We faked the move above the downtrend line from the top and above a declining 50-day average. We're now back below the 50 day which is starting to accelerate to the downside, the 200-day which is flat now, and could easily start to decline with a downside move. In fact, it wouldn't take much for the 50 day to cross the 200 day.

My personal opinion is that we are preparing for a big move on the downside, Santa Claus notwithstanding. That said, I'm trading each day, day by day. No positions at this time. Short term we've got plenty of resistance above here: 1500, 1507, 1512....all basis the March ES. A break below 1470 targets 1410 basis March....the November lows.

My FF....welcome to the bear market.

IT

I agree with your ff IndexTrader. The 10 wk sma is coming down hard unless we print our highs. the 30 day which was coming down hard will turn up unless we print our nov lows. The world is playing our casino so moves are very very fast to confuse the majority. It's rare to go against seasonality but this is the time to do it. We might go down to spx 1410...with a lower print or crash possible. I'm not on the long side until Jan sometime. The end of year credit crunch will be the hook until 2nd week of January.

[humble1]

hard down until 12/21 or 12/24 as horrible news comes out next week about the credit markets and the consumer and banks and more. then we churn from christmas to new years as folks position themselves for the january effect rally, which will be a BIG disappointment and at most a churn.

read bloomberg about the ZERO EFFECT all the fed and other central banks had on interbank lending rates. this is a BIG STORY and a BIG SHOCK. it was never imagined that the innovative coodinated action last week would fail !

http://www.bloomberg...mp;refer=europe

[KnowNuttin2]

Nov 20th:

Santa Rally?
Yesterday's funny line was from Art Cashin.
Asked about the "santa Rally" he said:
This year, Santa may show up on a milk carton! (Missing)

Art Cashin...one of the wittiest on the floor and knows his stuff..technicals too.
I've been listening to him since 1981. He's a gem