12 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

This is a link rip from a public website with Arch Crawford interview on 7/24/08. His cheerful as usual; he expects broader market to catch up with NASDAQ 90% decline.

Link to Uranus

Edited by linrom1, 24 July 2008 - 10:35 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

"I see Mars Uranus Crash Cycles"

A "Mars Uranus Crash Cycle" August 6, 2008 thru March 2009 which will begin a serious depression.

Very dangerous days: August 1st, 6th and especially 16th.
August 16th is the most dangerous day with gold and oil up and markets and dollar down.

Predicts the US, Canada and Mexico will unify the currency as soon as the PESO = $0.10.

Called the "AMERO"

(I've seen that coming for some time.
Rumors that Interstate 35 is to become a 6 lane highway from Mexico to Canada.)
Proponents of the Interstate 35 Corridor refer to it as the "real" NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) highway, since the proposed NAFTA Highway (Interstate 69) is currently incomplete. Interstate 35, together with Interstate 29, provides a direct freeway connection between Mexico and Canada. Interstate 35 begins at the International Border with Mexico at Laredo and terminates at Duluth, Minnesota, some 200 miles southwest of the Canadian line, thus nearly affording it border-to-border status.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 24 July 2008 - 11:08 PM.

[Islander]

Arch says "depression" starting in August to March 2009, with "long term carry over". (like death its almost fatal). Actually says Arch, this wave in August is likely a C wave down of the 2000 cycle down. The real danger is all index might catch up with Nas, (down 90%) from the 2000 cycle. Sort of fits. He said the dollar might combine with Mx/Can to the new Amero. Collapse of the dollar theme. August 16th most dangerous day with oil and gold up from that day. Heard His interview with Sinclair Noa on KFNN on the 24th. It was not much more rational, but he stressed the Japanese carry trade was going to collapse with much capital moving back to Japan, thereby leaving the world to a major depression. Cause for wave C launch? Facts just do not support this line. As usual, one wonders if Arch is on the stuff, just enough facts mixed into the stars to catch the eye, but never rationalize his forecast. Entertainment value high, technical value questionable. I think he has the direction - down - right. Islander.

[humble1]

THANKS ! he is one of those very interesting and smart folks whose views i like to hear. the first time i paid any attention to him was in pre-crash 1987 when he was widely interveiwed in the press. he clearly and forcefully called for a crash and accurately predicted the pre-crash high widely and clearly in print. the record is all there; it is true. and he says he did this using astro. well, maybe so. but he also uses t/a ! he was trained in t/a at merrill back when merrill's people were the best in the business (was it farrell?; i can't recall}. uncanny ? anyway, i learned a lot about using astro from him and tying the turn dates to classic plain vanilla t/a as a filter and trading entry/exit tool.

[ken29]

Did Arch say real estate will drop 90%? Is that possible?

[humble1]

well, it DID in japan, under circumstances no less leveraged or boomed-out.

[cafeflorida]

He attributed this opinion to Sir John Templeton.

A few years ago, Templeton mentioned the 90%
retracement on real estate to be the level at which
to buy.



"...When home prices do start down, they
will fall remarkably far. In Japan, home
prices are down to less than half what they
were at the stock market peak."
Sir John adds, "A home price decline of as
little as 20% would put a lot of people in
bankruptcy...."

....If home prices start down, there will
be bankruptcies, and in bankruptcy, houses
are sold at lower prices, pushing home
prices down further." On that note, he has
a word of advice: "After home prices go
down to one-tenth of the highest price
homeowners paid, then buy."


http://moneycentral....tent/P52744.asp

[nimblebear]

Arch says "depression" starting in August to March 2009, with "long term carry over". (like death its almost fatal). Actually says Arch, this wave in August is likely a C wave down of the 2000 cycle down. The real danger is all index might catch up with Nas, (down 90%) from the 2000 cycle. Sort of fits.

He said the dollar might combine with Mx/Can to the new Amero. Collapse of the dollar theme.
August 16th most dangerous day with oil and gold up from that day.

Heard His interview with Sinclair Noa on KFNN on the 24th. It was not much more rational, but he stressed the Japanese carry trade was going to collapse with much capital moving back to Japan, thereby leaving the world to a major depression. Cause for wave C launch? Facts just do not support this line.

As usual, one wonders if Arch is on the stuff, just enough facts mixed into the stars to catch the eye, but never rationalize his forecast. Entertainment value high, technical value questionable. I think he has the direction - down - right. Islander.

He was doing the depression talky thingy back in '03.

Time to buy ?

[mogreen]

THANKS !

he is one of those very interesting and smart folks whose views i like to hear. the first time i paid any attention to him was in pre-crash 1987 when he was widely interveiwed in the press. he clearly and forcefully called for a crash and accurately predicted the pre-crash high widely and clearly in print.

the record is all there; it is true. and he says he did this using astro. well, maybe so. but he also uses t/a ! he was trained in t/a at merrill back when merrill's people were the best in the business (was it farrell?; i can't recall}.

uncanny ?

anyway, i learned a lot about using astro from him and tying the turn dates to classic plain vanilla t/a as a filter and trading entry/exit tool.

Humble....I was around every day of that '87 crash and followed all the major market gurus. Arch Crawford did NOT call that crash! Elaine Garzarille got lucky and gets credit for that call. Totally worthless after..she called for indu 1300 and was wrong, market never went any lower. Again like listening to the young AC but he's totally off the wall now.

[humble1]

yes, i remember elaine's call. she sent out 1000 letters to clients a few weeks before. after a while, she went cuckoo, lol.

but as to arch, i believe the record will show he did make the call, too. there was much talk of the planetary alignment, which showed up right at the pre-crash high in august. people laughed about it; then it came true. when i have time i will try to search the record. it may have even appeared in the WSJ, not sure.

an article from forbes; they still talk about it there !

http://www.forbes.co.../0719watch.html

Edited by humble1, 26 July 2008 - 05:54 PM.