Shorted the close again

It wasn't the cleanest signal, but I have to take it. I am NOT a descretionary trader. Still holding a short from late January as well. The market hasn't been weak on the close when it gets over-sold. I'm not reading too much into that though. Oh...I'm just looking for a quick little gain. Less than 1 ATR from entry. Today's pattern is a bearish formation going forward. It looks like a reversal, but these candle stick patterns don't do well when my COT work is bearish. D

I am NOT a descretionary trader.

"Discretion is the better part of valor."

Caution is preferable to rash bravery.
Said by Falstaff in King Henry the Fourth, Part One, by William Shakespeare.

But one is imaginary, the other long dead.

I think I'll change my name to Falstaff:
An endearing, fat, aging rogue who appears in several of the plays of William Shakespeare. He is prominent in the two parts of King Henry the Fourth, where he is the jolly companion of Prince Hal, the future King. Henry V. Falstaff is a lover of wine, women, and song; although a coward in practice, he loves to tell tales of his supposed bravery.

An opex trade...since the bear began in Oct07, if the 13th (or the Friday before if the 13th fell on a weekend) closes positive (for some reason the 13th of the month really stands out for the bulls), shorting SPY that close and holding until the next close resulted in 9 out of 11 winning trades averaging a whopping 1.85 SPY points--the 2 losers were very small. One caveat....Monday is a stock market holiday I think.

Edited by marketneutral, 13 February 2009 - 01:30 AM.

Monday is indeed a holiday. So the whole deal is off, maybe TM

It wasn't the cleanest signal, but I have to take it. I am NOT a
descretionary trader. Still holding a short from late January as
well. The market hasn't been weak on the close when it gets
over-sold. I'm not reading too much into that though.

Oh...I'm just looking for a quick little gain. Less than 1 ATR
from entry.

Today's pattern is a bearish formation going forward. It looks
like a reversal, but these candle stick patterns don't do well
when my COT work is bearish.


D

D I agree with RD and MN. fwiw If I was short I would bail on morning weakness as I think by the close it is going to be up up and away bud.

Z

It wasn't the cleanest signal, but I have to take it. I am NOT a
descretionary trader. Still holding a short from late January as
well. The market hasn't been weak on the close when it gets
over-sold. I'm not reading too much into that though.

Oh...I'm just looking for a quick little gain. Less than 1 ATR
from entry.

Today's pattern is a bearish formation going forward. It looks
like a reversal, but these candle stick patterns don't do well
when my COT work is bearish.


D

D I agree with RD and MN. fwiw If I was short I would bail on morning weakness as I think by the close it is going to be up up and away bud.

Z

That's OK. My COT stuff usually bails me out if my ST timing sucks.
The system has worked 86% of the time since 1995. I'll take those
odds. I guess I could have factored in all the various holidays, days
of the week, trading day of the month and the rest, but then I
would have a curve fit monster instead of a simple method that
Occam would approve.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

D