Feb. 19-20 low?

The McClellan echoes seem to point to the 19th.
Mike Burk's February chart would fit that fairly closely.
"During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has only been up 40% of the time with an average loss of 1.7% making it second to September again as the worst month of the entire 4 year Presidential Cycle."

Messing around with the NAMO McClellan oscillator has an interesting "echo" or cycle.
It looks like the next echo will hit on the 19th.
(Remember Monday the 16th is Presidents day and markets are closed.)
Stockcharts users can draw a line, then hold down Ctrl and it will allow you to duplicate an exact line.
I used that to equally measure the peaks and valleys on the NAMO.
I was amazed at how symmetrical they are.
NOTE: Stockcharts moves some of the lines around when you are not looking.
But they do measure to the 19/20 area. (OPEX)

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p48359693054&a=30820282&r=8505.png

Messing around with the NAMO McClellan oscillator has an interesting "echo" or cycle.
It looks like the next echo will hit on the 19th.
(Remember Monday the 16th is Presidents day and markets are closed.)
Stockcharts users can draw a line, then hold down Ctrl and it will allow you to duplicate an exact line.
I used that to equally measure the peaks and valleys on the NAMO.
I was amazed at how symmetrical they are.
NOTE: Stockcharts moves some of the lines around when you are not looking.
But they do measure to the 19/20 area. (OPEX)

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p48359693054&a=30820282&r=8505.png

The $NYMO chart and my 50 day ma summation chart have been mirroring each other for several weeks now. Here's what the $NYMO might look like should the 50-ma slope drop to a -38.2% slope (taking out the November low).

Thanks Spielchekr.
It seems like a retest has been expected by so many, that it makes me nervous as to how it might work out, if at all.
It would be hard not to buy it. (But maybe too easy?)

Mike Burk:
"Everything is in place for a successful retest of the November lows.
In study I did about 20 years ago, I found that when the market made a low with a lot of new lows there was always a retest of the low."

Could it be a very quick drop with "everybody" rushing in to buy, putting in a firm "V" IT bottom?
Or could it be a very quick drop with "everybody" bullishly rushing in to buy only to see some up-down-up-down tree shaking?

Your projection seems to indicate a possible month long, 50 point tree shaking range from 725 to 775ish.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 February 2009 - 01:32 PM.

Well, it looks like the bears have launched the Battle of the Bulge II tonight. Maybe they finally realize that the positive divergences down below aren't going to go away, so they may as well give it everything they've got immediately. Here's a smoothed transition over the next four days down to -38.2% slope. The wicks/tails shows the daily price differences between a flat 50ma and one at -38.2% slope. I've simply dropped price between the two baoundaries by 25% each day to get a smoothed roll on the 50ma. Such action only exasperates the positive divergence to come. I'm not suprised to see the bears sending their child soldiers to the front tonight and tomorrow.