In my neighborhood everybody seems to just be sitting tight.
Only 1 for sale within blocks.
Chain Store Sales
Heavy weather or not, chain-stores did well in February with many posting accelerating rates of year-on-year growth compared to growth rates in January. Chains are reporting rising traffic and higher transactions. But sales are not uniformly higher with some chains posting steady rates and others declining rates. Many of those reporting declining rates are blaming the month's heavy weather, whether it was snow closing stores or cold temperatures hurting seasonal sales. Some of those reporting strength, such as upscale chain Macy's, said they would have posted greater strength if not for the weather. Upscale chains, the hardest hit during the recession, continue to post significant gains. Though seasonal adjustments will help, February 2009 provides a weak unadjusted base compared to January 2009. Nevertheless, when adjusted, chain-store sales are pointing to strength for the ex-auto ex-gas category of next week's retail sales report.
Monster Employment Index
The Monster employment index jumped 10 points in February to 124 in a gain the report ties largely to seasonality as recruiters pick up efforts after a January lull. Still, the gain is large with February showing the first year-on-year increase, at 2 percent, in more than two years. Gains were led by information and by professional, scientific & technical services. Construction, despite the month's heavy weather, also rose solidly as did two cyclically sensitive industries: wholesale trade and transportation & warehousing.
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims swung lower, down 29,000 to 469,000 vs. expectations for 475,000. There are no special factors in the Feb. 27 week. The prior week, when heavy weather increased filings, was revised 2,000 higher to 498,000. The weekly data for February show steep swings whether up or down. The four-week average, which helps smooth out volatility, fell 3,500 in the week to 470,750, a level showing no significant change from late January to indicate no improvement for tomorrow's non-farm payroll headline which is expected to fall 50,000. Markets showed no reaction to this morning's report.
Productivity and Costs
Both productivity and costs were revised better than expected for the fourth quarter. Businesses clearly are focusing on cutting labor costs to try to boost profits or cut losses. Nonfarm business productivity was revised up to a sharp 6.9 percent boost from the initial estimate of 6.2 percent. This followed a revised 7.8 percent surge in the third quarter.
RBC CASH Index
March RBC CASH (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) Index was up by 18.8 to stand at 58.2, The index was buoyed by consumers' upbeat evaluations of their current economic condition and their positive outlook for the job market. RBC noted that the volatile results in recent month reflects just how fragile consumer confidence remains. They noted that in spite of statistical indicators showing that the recession is over many consumers do not yet see evidence of a strong recovery in their own lives and are unsure of what to believe. We are unlikely to see a consistent upward trend until consumers are convinced that a solid recovery is in place.
Factory Orders
Factory orders rose a very solid 1.7 percent in January led by strength in transportation equipment, specifically aircraft. Orders for non-durable goods rose 0.9 percent. Durable goods orders, already released, were revised four tenths lower to a still very strong 2.6 percent. December orders were revised 5 tenths higher to plus 1.5 percent.
Factory shipments rose a respectable 0.3 percent in the month following big 1.8 and 1.6 percent gains in the prior two months. January's sharp rise in new orders points to lagging strength for shipments. Factory inventories increased 0.2 percent and are likely to continue to rise as a building cycle begins.
This week's ISM manufacturing report showed solid strength in February and no major weather effects, pointing to strength for the next readings on the factory sector, the industrial production report on March 15 and the durable goods report on March 24. The manufacturing recovery appears to be hitting stride in what is the economy's central strength.
Pending Home Sales Index
The pending home sales index continues to fall steeply, down 7.6 percent to 90.4. The National Association of Realtors, which compiles the report, blames the month's heavy weather. But it's more than the weather as home sales have simply plunged following November's expiration of buyer credits. The pending April expiration of a second round of buyer credits will hopefully lead to a burst of activity, and soon. But unless there's a third round of stimulus or a dramatic improvement in the economy, the outlook after April is uncertain to say the least given heavy foreclosures on the supply side and a defensive consumer on the demand side. Equities and commodities are dipping in reaction to the report.
The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity.
EIA Natural Gas Report
Natural gas in storage fell 116 billion cubic feet in the Feb. 26 week.
The previous week fel -172 bcf.
LINK
UNG Say good-by support!
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Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 March 2010 - 11:06 AM.
