March 8, May 20th T Theory dates

For those who like dates, here's 2 from Terry: March 8, May 20.

LINK
"March 3 2010 Close: My T Theory Forecast remains bullish for the longer term based on the long term AD T #13. The S&P broke down below the mid-channel support as noted in the chart, however the current rally from the recent bottom is improving the situation and the AD green Line looks to have turned strong and should be headed to a May peak. We are now going to start calculating the Volume Oscillator peak dates using the new 280 day data below with May 20 the most common result.
I have received a number of estimates for the projected peak date and May 20 is the most common and probably most correct answer. I have also had the New Small Red T peak date estimated as March 8."

The May 20th call may look like the mid October call.
A June low then a final push into late August.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p26499043395&a=179964330&r=8325.png

For those who like dates, here's 2 from Terry: March 8, May 20.

LINK
"March 3 2010 Close: My T Theory Forecast remains bullish for the longer term based on the long term AD T #13. The S&P broke down below the mid-channel support as noted in the chart, however the current rally from the recent bottom is improving the situation and the AD green Line looks to have turned strong and should be headed to a May peak. We are now going to start calculating the Volume Oscillator peak dates using the new 280 day data below with May 20 the most common result.
I have received a number of estimates for the projected peak date and May 20 is the most common and probably most correct answer. I have also had the New Small Red T peak date estimated as March 8."

The May 20th call may look like the mid October call.
A June low then a final push into late August.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p26499043395&a=179964330&r=8325.png

Thanks for the T Mr T

I got 1132.50 area for today if that goes not a lot holding it back.

Monday = locked in long-term holding period from last year's crash

Man! Look at that VIX gap down.
It looks similar to January's top.

Today Laundry presents several dates for this "New small T".
Remember that Laundry's past work has focused on longer term market direction.
But as he's began posting daily, folks want the shorter term outlook, so it seems to be a work in progress where he is inviting his students to offer their thinking.
So we get "March 8, 10 and 11" and one projection of the 22nd.!

Albert asks: According to your calculations the “New small T“ will expire March 8. The T post (bottom of ADL) should be on Feb. 8, the high point (left end of “New small T”) of the VOL Osc. was on Jan. 7.If this data are correct the right end of the “New small T“ should be March 10. Is my calculation incorrect ?

The answer is their are a number of plausible dates due to the uncertainty of the actual turning points from the daily "end of day" data. The center post of the T can easily be interpreted with a one day error. Such a one day error will produce a two day error for the top date. The left end date is likely to have an uncertainty of a half day. I received projections of March 8, 10 and 11. I doubt we can do any better than call out this range.


I am most interested in the AD Oscillator pattern in todays chart above with the two possible Ts from the recent low sketched in. I will do the Bigger T on Saturday's post. The smaller Ts data is listed for A and B the cash build up time for the T. According to my reading of Jim's SS the calculated date is March 22 and I think this also has a similar uncertainty. Let me know if there are another interpretations.

The IT cycles seemed to be getting shorter since the major low. 19 weeks, 16 weeks, and 13 weeks into the most recent low. I've read that government pension accounting looks at 5-year historical returns to determine level of underfunding and that negative returns trigger major changes in pension contributions required by their plans. The SPX is right about break even again for the time being. Even so, the state of Virginia's teachers pension contributions may rise to 20-21 percent of wages.

Edited by Data, 05 March 2010 - 11:03 AM.