sophisticated retail trader?

http://www.chartsand...dumbest-of-all/

Some inconvenient truths there.

http://www.chartsand...dumbest-of-all/

Hahahahah I love this! Nimblebear was all over this today

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=116898

http://www.chartsand...dumbest-of-all/

I don' t know if those who post about market manipulation are the dumbest of all............but for sure I know that no-one
was waiting for the 2007 collapse when it occurred. I remember that all the bloggers all over the internet had magnificent upside targets and all the indicators saying the commercials were buying and so the insiders etc.etc. I think many posters similar to those mentioned are still populating blogs and forums posting again about magnificent upside targets of a new bull market. To me these are the dumbest of all. Because they never learn from their mistakes.

An interesting article in the New York Times this morning on this very subject. . .

Companies are quietly and gradually moving their pension funds out of stocks. They want to reduce their investment risk and are buying more long-term bonds.

But states and other bodies of government are seeking higher returns for their pension funds, to make up for ground lost in the last couple of years and to pay all the benefits promised to present and future retirees. Higher returns come with more risk.

“In effect, they’re going to Las Vegas,” said Frederick E. Rowe, a Dallas investor and the former chairman of the Texas Pension Review Board, which oversees public plans in that state. “Double up to catch up.”

http://www.nytimes.c...pension.html?hp

Everyone might not be "Going to Rick's" but, it appears state and other municipal pension funds are.

Edited by milbank, 09 March 2010 - 09:15 AM.

last decade saw what happens when everyone is yield hungry..it is a recipe for a BUST...

but for sure I know that no-one
was waiting for the 2007 collapse when it occurred.

I was as well as some others.

I remember that all the bloggers all over the internet had magnificent upside targets and all the indicators saying the commercials were buying and so the insiders etc.etc. I think many posters similar to those mentioned are still populating blogs and forums posting again about magnificent upside targets of a new bull market. To me these are the dumbest of all. Because they never learn from their mistakes.

Well, if you were a long term investor and you went for it, which had to be quickly as it turned up and ran fast last March, you made out OK but, many "long term investors" or those who were, as I, dealing with their long term investments and had gotten out near or at the top in 2007, are not into making the kind of quick moves that would have been required. There are tax issues involved in that sort of thing, for one example, that have to be taken into consideration along with where they market might go in the future and the time span. Hindsight is wonderful and in terms of fibonacci points. 666.76 would have been a great area to get back in but, there were and are currently a lot of issues that will work themselves out and, in my opinion, not for the better, down the road.

I still think the equity markets over the next few years will move in a similar fashion to the Nikkei from the very late '80s through the '90s. So far, everything going, in terms of pattern and time, to what I've been expecting. As I've said in a few past posts over the last year..."on schedule." It still is in my opinion. My gold holdings I've had so long, they don't matter for me. I didn't add and I'm probably never going to subtract from them unless I want to take spending money out via selling some of it which I doubt. My long-term equity investment monies have been in various short-term bond and money markets since I removed them from the equity market in July 2007.





As I said, hindsight is wonderful but, not something a rational person should be thinking about. I don't mind the wait.

Those who did not get out and held through the drop are still need approximately a 30% rise to break even from where they were at the top in October, 2007.

My experience has consistently shown me that "It's the second mouse (not pictured here) gets the cheese."

Edited by milbank, 09 March 2010 - 09:50 AM.

but for sure I know that no-one
was waiting for the 2007 collapse when it occurred.

I was as well as some others.

I remember that all the bloggers all over the internet had magnificent upside targets and all the indicators saying the commercials were buying and so the insiders etc.etc. I think many posters similar to those mentioned are still populating blogs and forums posting again about magnificent upside targets of a new bull market. To me these are the dumbest of all. Because they never learn from their mistakes.

Well, if you were a long term investor and you went for it, which had to be quickly as it turned up and ran fast last March, you made out OK but, many "long term investors" or those who were, as I, dealing with their long term investments and had gotten out near or at the top in 2007, are not into making the kind of quick moves that would have been required. There are tax issues involved in that sort of thing, for one example, that have to be taken into consideration along with where they market might go in the future and the time span. Hindsight is wonderful and in terms of fibonacci points. 666.76 would have been a great area to get back in but, there were and are currently a lot of issues that will work themselves out and, in my opinion, not for the better, down the road.

I still think the equity markets over the next few years will move in a similar fashion to the Nikkei from the very late '80s through the '90s. So far, everything going, in terms of pattern and time, to what I've been expecting. As I've said in a few past posts over the last year..."on schedule." It still is in my opinion. My gold holdings I've had so long, they don't matter for me. I didn't add and I'm probably never going to subtract from them unless I want to take spending money out via selling some of it which I doubt. My long-term equity investment monies have been in various short-term bond and money markets since I removed them from the equity market in July 2007.





As I said, hindsight is wonderful but, not something a rational person should be thinking about. I don't mind the wait.

Those who did not get out and held through the drop are still need approximately a 30% rise to break even from where they were at the top in October, 2007.

My experience has consistently shown me that "It's the second mouse (not pictured here) gets the cheese."

I am a medium term stock trader (few weeks to some months). All I wanted to say is that a large part of traders that are now in
euphoric mode with the renewed bullish market bias..............imo are the same that were caught in the collapse.

That was merely a response not a rebuke. I hope you didn't take it as anything more than that andr99 . What you are in this conversation, a medium term-trader, is different than a long-term investor which, in this case is what I'm referring to myself as (as opposed to my VST trading which is daily and a whole different thing). Trading and investing are different animals. I can see as a trader with the timeframe you are talking, this is an issue. I have to tell you, I've always considered the expression, "Sophisticated Retail Trader" an oxymoron similar to "Military Intelligence"

Edited by milbank, 09 March 2010 - 12:03 PM.