Who said: "Housing negatives are behind us."?

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CNNMoney.com
October 26 2006
Despite all the recent weakness in housing, there are some signs that the housing slump may be at or near its bottom. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday that while the housing sector's woes were "not over," he believes the outlook for housing was reasonably good.

"Most of the negatives in housing are probably behind us," Greenspan said at a conference sponsored by the Commercial Finance Association. "The fourth quarter should be reasonably good, certainly better than the third quarter."

LINK


So I guess all you do is say that horrible news is as bad as it can get:

"write-downs could reach $285 billion for the financial sector worldwide"

But there is light at the end of the tunnel:

"but an end to the write-downs is now in sight for large financial institutions"

Sweet dreams.

To be fair, I don't think anybody knew the problems that would surface a year later. Rich

To be fair, would you say the same for the S&P's prediction today? "but an end to the write-downs is now in sight for large financial institutions"

Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 March 2008 - 11:17 PM.

Rich, The brokers at Countrywide etc. knew when they were steering people into loans they could not realistically afford when repriced, to get a bigger up-front commission, what they were doing. They also knew when they were giving out mass quantities of NINJA loans what they were doing. Angelo Mozillo of Countrywide knew what his people were doing. It's no accident he sold $138 million worth of Countrywide stock between November 2006 and August 2007. So did the investment bankers who packaged sub-prime mortgages and got the rating agencies to call them AAA so that they could sell them. The rating agenies didn't get paid until they were sold. Everyone, every step of the way knew the fraud they were putting down in their little corner of the game. The people overseeing thees lenders and ibanks were not as dumb as they claim to be. As individuals, they all made out like bandits. That is what they were interested in. Not the institutional damage that would be done to the companies and banks they worked for or society at large.

As far as "the light at the end of the tunnel" for writedowns go, I will post this chart again, you be the judge....



There might be a "light at the end of the tunnel" for sub-prime arms but, by the time the alt-a and prime resets start to peak, the damage and devaluation of prices on homes from the subprime foreclosures to the market will make a lot of Alt-A and even prime mortgagees think twice about paying off a mortgage they are underwater on.

Edited by milbank, 13 March 2008 - 11:37 PM.

To be fair, I don't think anybody knew the problems that would surface a year later.

Rich

Even though Martin Armstrong has been in prison since the year 2000 he wrote in 1999 that after 2007 it would be apparent that there were serious problems with the American system.

I also warned on this forum in early 2007 that according to my work the HGX would not bottom until the spring of 2009, this isn't over by a long shot things are going to get quite bad for the economy going into 2011, there is likely to be a recovery for part of this year though.

To be fair, I don't think anybody knew the problems that would surface a year later.

Rich

when asked about the housing bubble greenspan said "i didn't see it coming".

ed rader

milbank: everyone should print out the chart and comments you posted above and put them on a corkboard in their trading room, so that when the bs starts flowing one can just look at that chart and say "NOT !". thanks for that objective and helpful analysis.

interesting article on valuations

http://www.economist...ory_id=10809435