Index returns YTD

Great deal of fear & panic in the financial markets this weekend. When looking at the financial markets coldly and with as little emotion as possible what EXACTLY do we find with a asset allocated index portfolio? One that is balanced as I think a retiree's portfolio should be. As I did 4 or 5 weeks ago I will post my own retirement portfolio here. It shows the securities I hold and the % of portfolio and return + or - for each and return for the portfolio as a whole YTD. $ amount of portfolio not shown. All but the ETF commodity fund are in Vanguard Index funds. Total Stock Market Index Fund--------25% of portfolio. -.11.88% Total International Index Fund--------15% of portfolio -10.91% Emerging Market Index Fund----------05% of portfolio -12.53% Total Bond Market Index Fund--------35% of portfolio +2.11% S/T Investment Grade Index Fund---15% of portfolio +2.27% I-Shires GSCI Commodity Fund (GSG) 05% of portfolio +16.95% The above is my L/T buy & hold portfolio. It is 80% of my total retirement portfolio. The other 20% is in a trading account following the IBD Big Picture signal. One I posted here at TT in real time for 4 &1/2 years until last fall. It moves between SPY,QQQQ and SHY(Ishares 1-3 year treasury.) following the IBD signal. This year it moved into SPY from SHY 1 time. There about 3 weeks then out on sell signal for a 2% loss. Result was a loss of about 2%. So the trading account this year has had a loss of 2% while in stocks and a profit of 2.16% while it was in SHY. Since I did not post the trades here in real time I will just show the results. At the present time the 20% trading portfolio is all in SHY. Putting it all together the loss YTD for the total portfolio is -4.81% Not good, but not a disaster either. What will happen in the future? I don't have the slightest idea. Will let the market tell me. Charles

Hi Charles.
Thanks for the update on the IBD style.
It seems like a lots of trading methods which work well in bull markets are having trouble now.

For example TSP uses sentiment for their members.
2006 they were up +27.96%
2007 they were up +21.32%
So far 2008 DOWN: (11.87%)

I think it's a very different environment out there now that many are ignoring.
It's been 8 years since the 55 weekly MA was headed down.

Do you have any stats on the success of the IBD system during bear markets?

...Putting it all together the loss YTD for the total portfolio is -4.81% Not good, but not a disaster either. What will happen in the future? I don't have the slightest idea. Will let the market tell me.

Charles

Thank you for posting, much appreciated.

Roger, I don't have the stats for the IBD system in bear markets, but O'Neal says in his book that it is not as accurate in bear markets as in bull markets. In bull markets he says in his book that it is right 75 to 80% of the time. In the 3 & 1/2 years I posted real time trades here following it it was right about 65% of the time. And kept all losses small and let profits run. Does not give a figure for bear markets. Since I stopped posting real time trades here last fall I have followed it in and out three times. It was a loser all three times. But by small amounts. Total of about 5% loss for all 3 trades. About a total + 2% total return(counting interest earned) while in SHY in that period. So the trading portfolio following the IBD signals has lost about 3% net since I quit posting trades in real time here in the fall at almost the exact top in the equity markets. So while not profitable since the market top it has kept the losses small in the bear market. A net -3%. SO FAR. And if this is a bear market. Personaly all I can say is I don't know. But bear market or whatever stay safe. As Buffet says the # 1 rule of investing is don't lose. And the # 2nd rule of investing is don't ever forget rule # 1. Charles

Edited by tuffy88, 15 March 2008 - 01:48 PM.

Many many thanks for posting Tuffy. I really appreciate folks sharing their long term positions - especially folks near or in retirement.

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ANNUAL TOTAL RETURN (%) HISTORY .................yr 2000,2001,2002 bear market

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