Are you BULLISH?
AAII members are:
(as of 5/7/2008) Bullish: 52.81% Neutral: 22.47% Bearish: 24.72%
Last Week:
53.29%
20.39%
26.32%
AAII bullish again
Started by
Rogerdodger
, May 08 2008 12:02 AM
17 replies to this topic
#1
Rogerdodger
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#2
dcengr
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Posted 08 May 2008 - 12:04 AM
Are you BULLISH?
AAII members are:
(as of 5/7/2008) Bullish: 52.81% Neutral: 22.47% Bearish: 24.72%
Last Week:
53.29%
20.39%
26.32%
Bah you were a few seconds ahead of me
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#3
Rogerdodger
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Posted 08 May 2008 - 12:07 AM
Great Minds... 
PS: on second look, sentimentrader did have a little move closer to neutral tonight.
Allowing for a little rally tomorrow. We'll see.
PS: on second look, sentimentrader did have a little move closer to neutral tonight.
Allowing for a little rally tomorrow. We'll see.
"Nature's Failure to Function in a 'Predictable Way'... 500 years ago?"
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#4
humble1
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Posted 08 May 2008 - 03:10 AM
thanks for the info. that's the classic signature of a bear (this a three year one methinks): a quick and foolish return to rampant bullishness as the upper trendline on the daily is finally set.
and, btw and fwiw, i am fond of trendline angles. this one off of the 10/11/07 i/d spx high is ROOT-PHI !
DELICIOUS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#5
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 08 May 2008 - 05:08 AM
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAUD&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p81243716555&a=46433616&r=4453.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70807880706&a=59096042&r=3882.png
Big tops are a painful grind......a close below 1350 now and the top is in....still possible we could hit 1385 area spx and still see another high for this move though....or at worst a bounce back to the 1415/20 area.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&i=p99552678908&a=78670243&r=9701.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=W&yr=8&mn=3&dy=0&i=p53622955502&a=103379764&r=360.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=3&i=p79632583289&a=113409410&r=8125.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70807880706&a=59096042&r=3882.png
Big tops are a painful grind......a close below 1350 now and the top is in....still possible we could hit 1385 area spx and still see another high for this move though....or at worst a bounce back to the 1415/20 area.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&i=p99552678908&a=78670243&r=9701.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=W&yr=8&mn=3&dy=0&i=p53622955502&a=103379764&r=360.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=3&i=p79632583289&a=113409410&r=8125.png
Edited by Teaparty, 08 May 2008 - 05:14 AM.
#7
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 08 May 2008 - 06:58 AM
thanks for the info. that's the classic signature of a bear (this a three year one methinks): a quick and foolish return to rampant bullishness as the upper trendline on the daily is finally set.
and, btw and fwiw, i am fond of trendline angles. this one off of the 10/11/07 i/d spx high is ROOT-PHI !
DELICIOUS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is no longer a Bear by my definition. We've not confirmed a Bull, as yet, but that'll likely come in a bit.
Remember, this crew got Beared up fast and stayed Beared up for 21 (!!!!) weeks. They only left BUY territory a few weeks ago.
I think you're trading the last market, current pullback notwithstanding.
Mark
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#8
ogm
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Posted 08 May 2008 - 08:44 AM
This may not be a bear , but its definitely not a bull 
Uncertainty is simply overwhelming this market. And I think the market will be simply meandering in some sort of a range for many weeks.
Looking at those charts that TP posted we might have defined the top of the range for now.
And the sentiment definitely improved. Last week slightest mediocre economic news that was barely out of the recession territory were greeted with a lot of exhuberance. AAII, put/call everything improved significantly, and at the same time economic situation got even more uncertain then ever.
Uncertainty is simply overwhelming this market. And I think the market will be simply meandering in some sort of a range for many weeks.
Looking at those charts that TP posted we might have defined the top of the range for now.
And the sentiment definitely improved. Last week slightest mediocre economic news that was barely out of the recession territory were greeted with a lot of exhuberance. AAII, put/call everything improved significantly, and at the same time economic situation got even more uncertain then ever.
#9
humble1
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Posted 08 May 2008 - 09:38 AM
yup: and during that long drop (10/11/07-3/17/08) we lost 320 spx points, a massacre, really, on the daily, and a HUGE total equity drawdown. now we have made the expected bounce back off of oversold and overbearish conditions, setting up a very acceptable upper d/t line for a devastating three year bear.
and, btw, the last market - 2003 to 2007 - was a bull. so, are you sure it is ME trading that last one and not someone else ?
p.s. cassandra sayeth: beware of getting bullsih near the top of bear rallies.
p.s. cassandra sayeth: beware of getting bullsih near the top of bear rallies.
#10
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 08 May 2008 - 10:00 AM
If the Bear is over, you're trading the last one.
There's a very good chance that it is, or rather that it wasn't really one at all but rather an artifact of ill-defined counter party risk, not a discounting of a future down turn.
I think that the real Bear comes when the Fed tightens.
Mark
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