The mother of all swing tops probobly came in on fridays close

A good risk/ reward trade is to short the break of fridays lows in the ES at 1282.75 with a stop just above the highs of 1294.

I think the market will revisit the last week's lows here, or a bit higher by Tue or so, perhaps a little spill over to Wed and then rally into the first week of Sep, consolidate into the second week and then rally one last time into the middle of Sep, 1350 target. Then decline into the first week of Oct, from there, rally 1-2 wks into the middle of Oct, then decline into Dec... The mid Sep rally will be probably the high for this recovery attempt, Sep opex is my time target for the high. This means a consolidation until about a week before the Sep opex (Sep 9-10 for the 8wk low). The Oct rally is probably going to be the right shoulder (from the Oct 7-9 for the 12 wk low), but the market should bust the shorts there, in other words, a neutral close has the highest odds, my take is 1300-1320, if the market manages to make the 1350 target. The Dec low could be the crash everyone is looking for...

Edited by arbman, 24 August 2008 - 07:07 PM.

Always appreciate your thoughts Arb.

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You are welcome.

Edited by arbman, 24 August 2008 - 07:23 PM.

Yes, as always, great work Gokhan although that word "crash" is one I'm hesitant to use in this type of bear. I am curious, have you any charts/opinions that go out as far as the end of the first quarter or perhaps even first half of 2009?

I have a pause there, the bigger top Sep 11-12.

A good risk/ reward trade is to short the break of fridays lows in the ES at 1282.75 with a stop just above the highs of 1294.

Just looking at the weekly HISTOGRAM bars, I'll be surprised if we don't see more labored upside efforts for a couple of weeks. LINK

I could see arbman's prediction work out:
"rally into the first week of Sep, consolidate into the second week and then rally one last time into the middle of Sep, 1350 target."

But that's just me BSing.

Yes, as always, great work although that word "crash" is one I'm hesitant to use in this type of bear.
I am curious, have you any charts/opinions that go out as far as the end of the first quarter or perhaps even first half of 2009?

I'll put something together... I think stable for the first quarter of 2009, then steps down into Q3, the first serious bullish rally in Q4 '09, the final lows in the first half of 2010, retest by 2012, if not lower with the major long term bullish divergences --at least 4-6 year bull market to follow. There I lost more business for the next 10 years!

Yes, as always, great work although that word "crash" is one I'm hesitant to use in this type of bear.
I am curious, have you any charts/opinions that go out as far as the end of the first quarter or perhaps even first half of 2009?

I'll put something together... I think stable for the first quarter of 2009, then steps down into Q3, the first serious bullish rally in Q4 '09, the final lows in the first half of 2010, retest by 2012, if not lower with the major long term bullish divergences --at least 4-6 year bull market to follow. There I lost more business for the next 10 years!

I hate to say it but, I think you're right. The gig is up. A secular bear isn't a quick bit of business.
There are going to be a lot of destitute and variations on destitute baby boomers in another ten years or so.

Edited by milbank, 25 August 2008 - 08:44 AM.

I hate to say it but, I think you're right. The gig is up. A secular bear isn't a quick bit of business.
There are going to be a lot of destitute and variations on destitute baby boomers in another ten years or so.

People are working hard, they will not give up, the retiring baby boomers can weight on the economy, but this is capitalism and some of them will have to work until they die. There are a lot of young people, it all then comes down to whether the commodity prices will be affordable again, or whether US and the rest of the world will be able to solve the increasing energy problem. The solution is obviously not more oil, it is just not possible to keep up the production with the exponentially rising demand. I believe US will make some tough choices, but she will come out alright when the sustainable alternatives are in place in the next decade. I think the country will manage to grow despite the sleazy bankers and retiring population. There is no need to think otherwise since it means THE end anyway...