Let me ask you the question

Let me give you a few hints: (1) Every time the money supply increases, the cost of the goods and services must also increase over time, the only way to bring down the prices is to essentially sustain the same or cheaper commodity prices or increase the mining capacity... (2) Pay attention to the news here; the commodity prices are coming down recently because there are some commodity trading banks going under, not because there are new mines coming online... Well, perhaps now you know where to look to answer when this whole misery will end, and when the reflation efforts (too cheap credit) of the central banks would work...

This sounds like a trick question

I was just thinking about the same posted in the gold board: This notice is a bit scary

the commodity prices are coming down recently because there are some commodity trading banks going under, not because there are new mines coming online...

Tulsa's Semgroup went under because of oil speculating and futures trading.

A recession in US whether caused by the financial troubles or the commodity prices might reduce the oil consumption for a while, however any statistically significant drop in the consumption which is a bit too optimistic anyway, would be quickly compensated by all of the other nations that are competing to import more oil. China had to increase its domestic oil prices by 18% this year, I am sure they would like to now bring it down by importing more...

The evidence suggests the production will probably won't double from here like the consumption doubling every 10 years, there are a lot of talking heads making a lot sense. My thinking here is there won't be a return to the secular bull market from here until there will be an energy revolution that will free United States from the oil related constraints...

A recession in US whether caused by the financial troubles or the commodity prices might reduce the oil consumption for a while, however any statistically significant drop in the consumption which is a bit too optimistic anyway, would be quickly compensated by all of the other nations that are competing to import more oil. China had to increase its domestic oil prices by 18% this year, I am sure they would like to now bring it down by importing more...

The evidence suggests the production will probably won't double from here like the consumption doubling every 10 years, there are a lot of talking heads making a lot sense. My thinking here is there won't be a return to the secular bull market from here until there will be an energy revolution that will free United States from the oil related constraints...

you and t boone pickens may have called the top in oil . soon the recession will be global and i think in some areas like china it will be more like a depression and demand will drastically decrease ... just like it increased.

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 25 August 2008 - 02:06 AM.

you and t boone pickens may have called the top in oil. soon the recession will be global and i think in some areas like china it will be more like a depression and demand will drastically decrease ... just like it increased.

Well, I did call the correction top here anyway, thanks for being unfair. Now, China has been slowing for a year according to their stock market performance, so did US. For some reason crude oil still sits right over its 200 dma and the 200 dma is about 80% higher than where it was last year in Aug and still pointing sharply up. The equity markets are down and certainly not up 80%. Certainly the demand destruction and a few commodity trading institutions getting busted will take some of the premium away, but it just doesn't increase the commodity reserves. All of the central banks want to reflate any tick lower in the commodities, I think if the oil and other commodities have not stayed so high in May, the decline, hence the further slow down, into July could've been largely preventable. It is funny nobody gets it here even after the fact, imho...

Edited by arbman, 25 August 2008 - 08:51 AM.

you and t boone pickens may have called the top in oil. soon the recession will be global and i think in some areas like china it will be more like a depression and demand will drastically decrease ... just like it increased.

Well, I did call the correction top here anyway, thanks for being unfair. Now, China has been slowing for a year according to their stock market performance, so did US. For some reason crude oil still sits right over its 200 dma and the 200 dma is about 80% higher than where it was last year in Aug and still pointing sharply up. The equity markets are down and certainly not up 80%. Certainly the demand destruction and a few commodity trading institutions getting busted will take some of the premium away, but it just doesn't increase the commodity reserves. All of the central banks want to reflate any tick lower in the commodities, I think if the oil and other commodities have not stayed so high in May, the decline, hence the further slow down, into July could've been largely preventable. It is funny nobody gets it here even after the fact, imho...

i'm not trying to ruffle your feather Arb i.... just think oil comes down drastically....just like it rose. i've got friends driving hybrids and lining up to by smart cars. we've never seen a governemnt this tied to big business, primarily the oil business.

and you live in california....when's the last time we had a rolling blackout ?

ed rader

and you live in california....when's the last time we had a rolling blackout ?

Well apparently we are paying the most expensive energy rates, I guess we deserve the privilege of an uninterrupted energy service!

Thanks to our previous governor and VP for their superb deal making abilities or others...

Edited by arbman, 25 August 2008 - 11:06 PM.