AAII:
(as of 1/7/2009)
Bullish: 48.70%
Neutral: 16.23%
Bearish: 35.06%
(as of 12/31/2008)
Bullish: 24.00%
Neutral: 21.33%
Bearish: 54.67%
Nearer term, Sentimentrader.com moved from to extremely bullish to neutral in 3 days.
AAII Bulls double, bears retreat
Started by
Rogerdodger
, Jan 08 2009 01:04 AM
7 replies to this topic
#1
Rogerdodger
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#2
danzman
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Posted 08 January 2009 - 01:15 AM
AAII:
(as of 1/7/2009)
Bullish: 48.70%
Neutral: 16.23%
Bearish: 35.06%
(as of 12/31/2008)
Bullish: 24.00%
Neutral: 21.33%
Bearish: 54.67%
Nearer term, Sentimentrader.com moved from to extremely bullish to neutral in 3 days.
That's huge. I don't follow sentiment polls anymore, but the velocity of change
sounds like one of the highest. My FF is that next Tuesday's close will be below
Wednesday's close. If it's not, it sets up a very statistically significant short.
Been doing some homework with dates around op-ex...
D
I don't make predictions, I just react.
#3
Rogerdodger
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Posted 08 January 2009 - 01:21 AM
"velocity of change" seems more important than levels.
But that makes Sentimentrader's quick move of interest at least in the very short term.
"Nature's Failure to Function in a 'Predictable Way'... 500 years ago?"
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#4
nimblebear
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Welcome to the Dark Side !
Posted 08 January 2009 - 01:33 AM
those bulls are deer meat !
OTIS.
#5
hiker
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independent trader
Posted 08 January 2009 - 04:49 AM
-------------those bulls are deer meat !
ES 899 was the low for the entire Wed. future's session
ES 899.40 is the overnight session low so far in today's ES session
4:49 a.m. Eastern
#6
ogm
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Posted 08 January 2009 - 07:50 AM
You could smell complacency last week.
#7
maineman
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maineman
Posted 08 January 2009 - 08:05 AM
Sentiment is "useful" but not absolute. It was odd that so many in the public were bullish (Newspapers, commentators, newsletter writers...etc) and the market was rallying but the AAII, Consensus and Market Vane all had many more bears than bulls. Didn't make sense. Now you see the big jump and we all know what happened. Even Mark's great "gold" indicator was right and then suddenly yesterday it wasn't.
so sentiment polls can obviously lag price action at times. Today's lesson, I guess.
mm
#8
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 08 January 2009 - 08:39 AM
There's a reason why I look at so many and try to contextualize them.
Right now, some bearishness is rising VERY quickly. My own, for instance.
We've been trained by a year of Bear market.
Mark
Mark S Young
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