would either of you guys consider that January 15th on the XAU or GDX was the wave 2 bottom (and now we are doing wave 3 up) and that your EW counts are incorrect?
what needs to happen price wise for you to say that your count is incorrect and that we already finished wave 2 down on the January 15th?
xau daily
Started by
gvc
, Jan 22 2009 04:44 PM
20 replies to this topic
#11
tradesurfer
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#12
senorBS
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Posted 23 January 2009 - 04:40 PM
would either of you guys consider that January 15th on the XAU or GDX was the wave 2 bottom (and now we are doing wave 3 up) and that your EW counts are incorrect?
what needs to happen price wise for you to say that your count is incorrect and that we already finished wave 2 down on the January 15th?
Nothing is impossible but I "consider" it muy unlikely. I always look at all possibilities, Senor is going with the obvious and probable one.
BSing away
Senor
#13
gvc
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Posted 24 January 2009 - 11:58 AM
There also seems to be a lot of media attention to gold right now which generally precedes a decent top pricewise and timewise. Call me paranoid if you want, but I think a lot of these media outlets (tv and print) , especially the general news ones, seem to get their stories based on what "the powers" dish to them. So when I see regular news stations broadcasting that its a good time to buy gold or regular newspapers hawking gold stocks, then I get a bit concerned that an intermediate top is close at hand.
#14
senorBS
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Posted 24 January 2009 - 12:12 PM
There also seems to be a lot of media attention to gold right now which generally precedes a decent top pricewise and timewise. Call me paranoid if you want, but I think a lot of these media outlets (tv and print) , especially the general news ones, seem to get their stories based on what "the powers" dish to them. So when I see regular news stations broadcasting that its a good time to buy gold or regular newspapers hawking gold stocks, then I get a bit concerned that an intermediate top is close at hand.
I agree, Senor thinks gold "fever" is starting to run high, fits bueno with the cinco wave completing idea.
PURE BS
Senor
#15
tradesurfer
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Posted 24 January 2009 - 06:31 PM
i dont think anyone cares about the gold market yet..
in fact they all totally ignored the breakout this past friday which was the biggest event in the entire gold market in the last 29 years (the breakout last friday was the beginning of the breakout of the 29 year cup and handle)
we have no cheerleading on CNBC about gold yet.
we do not have the gold price permanently fixed on the right side of the screen on CNBC
we dont have the public scrambling to get in yet...
#16
gvc
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Posted 25 January 2009 - 12:01 PM
we have no cheerleading on CNBC about gold yet.
we do not have the gold price permanently fixed on the right side of the screen on CNBC
we dont have the public scrambling to get in yet...
Yes, these are some of the things you will see when gold is getting close to its final bull top in a few years, but , right now, there is plenty of media coverage about gold even on the non business channels. the morning anchors on the regular (non business) Fox news channel had a interview with a so called expert saying to buy gold, the usa national newspaper had a major headline article hawking gold investments, ordinary people calling in to "ask the experts" about buying gold, and in today's sunday business section a major headline about investing in gold. the only thing next to come is Cramer telling everyone its time again to get into mining shares, and you know what happened the last time he did that...they tanked. goldbugs are frothing at the possibility of the next major rally to 1200 and beyond. COT commercials continue to increase their shorts, various cycles coming due, etc, etc, etc. The bull isnt over yet by a long shot, but this particular rally we're in now is not the next "BIG" one, imo. I think that comes later this year.
#17
senorBS
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Posted 25 January 2009 - 04:14 PM
we have no cheerleading on CNBC about gold yet.
we do not have the gold price permanently fixed on the right side of the screen on CNBC
we dont have the public scrambling to get in yet...
Yes, these are some of the things you will see when gold is getting close to its final bull top in a few years, but , right now, there is plenty of media coverage about gold even on the non business channels. the morning anchors on the regular (non business) Fox news channel had a interview with a so called expert saying to buy gold, the usa national newspaper had a major headline article hawking gold investments, ordinary people calling in to "ask the experts" about buying gold, and in today's sunday business section a major headline about investing in gold. the only thing next to come is Cramer telling everyone its time again to get into mining shares, and you know what happened the last time he did that...they tanked. goldbugs are frothing at the possibility of the next major rally to 1200 and beyond. COT commercials continue to increase their shorts, various cycles coming due, etc, etc, etc. The bull isnt over yet by a long shot, but this particular rally we're in now is not the next "BIG" one, imo. I think that comes later this year.
Totally agree amigo, after this top is put in we should have a grande correction.
Senor
#18
dougie
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Posted 25 January 2009 - 07:10 PM
indeed: i track a number of blogs which are suddenly bullish: should be good for some more juice for a bit though
There also seems to be a lot of media attention to gold right now which generally precedes a decent top pricewise and timewise. Call me paranoid if you want, but I think a lot of these media outlets (tv and print) , especially the general news ones, seem to get their stories based on what "the powers" dish to them. So when I see regular news stations broadcasting that its a good time to buy gold or regular newspapers hawking gold stocks, then I get a bit concerned that an intermediate top is close at hand.
#19
blustar
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Posted 25 January 2009 - 10:01 PM
Usually 4 months off the first bottom sees a 70% correction of the advance. We should see that in Feb, but first much higher prices with the POG at 990 by Feb 2 and the GDX 44/45 by Feb 6. A test of the down trend line first tho' is in line with snap back behavior. I don't see this as a wave five as the wave structure doesn't fit, but all the same it doesn't matter, for all itents and purposes it is acting like one.
#20
senorBS
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Posted 26 January 2009 - 08:04 AM
indeed: i track a number of blogs which are suddenly bullish: should be good for some more juice for a bit though
There also seems to be a lot of media attention to gold right now which generally precedes a decent top pricewise and timewise. Call me paranoid if you want, but I think a lot of these media outlets (tv and print) , especially the general news ones, seem to get their stories based on what "the powers" dish to them. So when I see regular news stations broadcasting that its a good time to buy gold or regular newspapers hawking gold stocks, then I get a bit concerned that an intermediate top is close at hand.
Exactly amigo, let it go norte for maybe another week or so but I will be exiting into strength.
NO BS
Senor
