33 replies to this topic

[humble1]

p.s. on another matter, i am not sure i agree that it is a zero sum game since futures do not represent the whole universe of equities. in corn, for example, the futures market does not represent the whole crop. but, bottom line, what you (UFO) said much earlier may be the key point: (paraphrase) there is no real predictive value. so, with that, i happily resign from the debate.

Edited by humble1, 25 January 2009 - 05:44 PM.

[danzman]

p.s. on another matter, i am not sure i agree that it is a zero sum game since futures do not represent the whole universe of equities. in corn, for example, the futures market does not represent the whole crop.

but, bottom line, what you (UFO) said much earlier may be the key point:

(paraphrase) there is no real predictive value.

so, with that, i happily resign from the debate.

He was saying that futures is a zero sum game. Thought he was pretty clear
on that.

For the S&P 500 big contract...

Commercials: Little to no predictive value
Large traders: No predictive value
small specs: Predictive value

Don't knock it because you don't understand it (or dismiss it because
it doen't compley to your belief the market is going up).

D

[humble1]

okay, point taken about the zero sum futures only. as to its predictive value, i am certainly open minded on that. meanwhile, here is something i do see in UFO's chart and think can be fairly said: the story of the massacre of 2008 is a story of panic by the commercial herd. they were unhedged, and even long, much higher and massively short at the lows. that may not be predictive and there may be good reason for it, but there you have it.

[humble1]

that's what i take away from action over the last year: FADE THE COMMERCIALS! it's clear right there from the chart. they are just STARTING to cover shorts: and that's