27 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

do an analogy of the october 1990 low eh

[da_cheif]

or the january 1991 low

[nimblebear]

comparing current charts with historic charts is something ive been watching perma bears do for decades.. obviously...a waste of time.....i can only guess how many thousands of points up will occur before this stealth bull market loses the unwashed publics bear market label.......it took 7 years for that to occur after the hiccup of 1987.......back then it felt like the end of the world........and any thots of a huge bull market out of that was met with absolute distain......

im with da chief. comparing old to new is the most bogus thing ive ever seen. sure anyone can find a match. AFTER The fact.

this bull has legs. market action tells me noone is expecting this to keep going up. too many nervous nellies. i like dat.

[cgnx]

I think most of those 30:1 leveragers were banks and those humongous Trillions in TARP, Bailouts, Stimulus were necessary to rescue them. So the tax payers have paid for any and all the losses already. And in case you forgot, there was 10:1 leverage available for every Joe-6-pack in the roaring 1920's on Wall Street. Margin was 10 cents on the dollar. [/quote] Did you know that 30:1 leverage is 3 times as much as 10 to 1? That is 3 times worse. Your comment is absurd. And this is leveraging huge financial institutions, NOT Joe Sixpack(whose leverage levels are meaningless, then and now). This little break from Doomsday is nice. The selling gets tougher when your only getting $1 for your Citi Bank shares and 80 cents for aig and so on. Psychologically adjusting to the New Normal takes time. This leg down was a rude adjustment. But to say it was the last adjustment is foolish and market ignorant. If the market dove 90% on ten to 1 leverage, what will it do with 30 to 1 leverage?

[Data]

i think it's going to depend on how much the Fed buys and the supply of new debt. they've already bought over half of what they announced in March. this week, they bought another 142 billion dollars of debt. the government is borrowing nearly 200 billion dollars a month outside of April.

[salsabob]

What we may be trying to discern is if we are just going to experience a Class 4, rather than a Class 5 -



Also, one needs to keep in mind the context of whether a rally or decline is within a larger bear/bull period - those rallies/declines act/feel a lot different depending on period.

What is fascinating is that just two years ago, comparisons to the last 4th Turning ('29'- '44) would have seemed so ridiculous. And talk about states succeeding from the Union -
http://www.businessi...he-union-2009-4

or the gathering of arms and ammo -

http://www.ky3.com/n...l/42932397.html

sure has a tinge of that previous 4T (1860-1865)

and certainly recent Tea Parties have harken back to even an earlier 4T (1773-1794) -

http://news.bostonhe...position=recent

Now if we start hearing about privateering (e.g., private warship authorized by a country's government by letters of marque to attack or defend shipping) to counter some pirate activities, well that would look like the 4T crisis of 1569-1594. And that would be just too much to...

Opps, wait a minute...
http://www.nytimes.c...-edlet.html?hpw

Nay, history can't repeat itself and certainly has nothing to teach us.

[Rogerdodger]

IMF: 'Worrisome parallels' between now and Great Depression...

[Data]

Nice chart comparing the market with past recessions and average recessions.



There would be two ways of looking at the above. The more bullish view is that the bottom has already occurred as shown in the chart. The other view is to align the market tops and the March bottom would more closely identify with the September 2001 low and the market is correcting for six months before the final low later this fall and next spring.