19 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Okay- now that I have gone to 100% cash, done all my yelling, screaming, kicking the dog (not literally), walking, reflecting, and the rest.....I'll just have a couple of brief comments. First off, going to cash was purely a mechanical thing, as my open stops were hit (basically when SPX cash traded above 900)- so this didn't have anything to do with any opinion or decision on my part with regard to the future of the market trend. This was purely a money management aspect of what I do. I always use stops...always. And when they get hit, it's painful, because it's sort of an admission of error, in a way. But I'm sure I don't have to tell you that. Overall, I made a few dollars on this round, but that's very small consolation.

I've seen too many great traders get caught in a position and/or in a public posture, and get ripped apart when the market disagreed with their position or posture. You've seen it too. And that happened to me in a big way in August 1982, but that story is for another day. Suffice it to say, that won't happen again. And I will still be in the arena when the BIG payoff comes.

Also it did not have anything to do with the Seven Sentinels themselves - by my interpretation, they went to a sell on 5-12-09, and right now I'm in the process of evaluating that signal and I'll comment in more detail later- maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. We'll see. Clearly this trend is persistent. Maybe we have another push then another sell signal. I'll think this all through and comment later, as said.

Just wanted to clear the air, as this move probably surprised many....as it surprised me. I thought I would be adding today, not getting out. Just emphasizes my earlier point that our opinions are really not important in this game....market action is all that matters. Good trading all. And thanks for the comments below. D

Edited by IYB, 18 May 2009 - 03:01 PM.

[Tor]

Okay- now that I have gone to 100% cash, done all my yelling, screaming, kicking the dog (not literally), walking, reflecting, and the rest.....I'll just have a couple of brief comments. First off, going to cash was purely a mechanical thing, as my open stops were hit (basically when SPX cash traded above 900)- so this didn't have anything to do with any opinion or decision on my part with regard to the future of the market trend. This was purely a money management aspect of what I do. I always use stops...always. And when they get hit, it's painful, because it's sort of an admission of error, in a way. But I'm sure I don't have to tell you that. Overall, I made a few dollars on this round, but that's very small consolation.

I've seen too many great traders get caught in a position and/or in a public posture, and get ripped apart when the market disagreed with their position or posture. You've seen it too. And that happened to me in a big way in 1981, but that story is for another day. Suffice it to say, that won't happen again. And I will still be in the arena when the BIG payoff comes.

Also it did not have anything to do with the Seven Sentinels themselves - by my interpretation, they went to a sell on 5-12-09, and right now I'm in the process of evaluating that signal and I'll comment in more detail later- maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. We'll see. Clearly this trend is persistent. Maybe we have another push then another sell signal. I'll think this all through and comment later, as said.

Just wanted to clear the air, as this move probably surprised many....as it surprised me. I thought I would be adding today, not getting out. Just emphasizes my earlier point that our opinions are really not important in this game....market action is all that matters. Good trading all. And thanks for the comments below. D

Thanks for sharing your views Don. I am wondering if any account should be made for the plunge protection team PPT?

[securelstmile]

Okay- now that I have gone to 100% cash, done all my yelling, screaming, kicking the dog (not literally), walking, reflecting, and the rest.....I'll just have a couple of brief comments. First off, going to cash was purely a mechanical thing, as my open stops were hit (basically when SPX cash traded above 900)- so this didn't have anything to do with any opinion or decision on my part with regard to the future of the market trend. This was purely a money management aspect of what I do. I always use stops...always. And when they get hit, it's painful, because it's sort of an admission of error, in a way. But I'm sure I don't have to tell you that. Overall, I made a few dollars on this round, but that's very small consolation.

I've seen too many great traders get caught in a position and/or in a public posture, and get ripped apart when the market disagreed with their position or posture. You've seen it too. And that happened to me in a big way in August 1982, but that story is for another day. Suffice it to say, that won't happen again. And I will still be in the arena when the BIG payoff comes.

Also it did not have anything to do with the Seven Sentinels themselves - by my interpretation, they went to a sell on 5-12-09, and right now I'm in the process of evaluating that signal and I'll comment in more detail later- maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. We'll see. Clearly this trend is persistent. Maybe we have another push then another sell signal. I'll think this all through and comment later, as said.

Just wanted to clear the air, as this move probably surprised many....as it surprised me. I thought I would be adding today, not getting out. Just emphasizes my earlier point that our opinions are really not important in this game....market action is all that matters. Good trading all. And thanks for the comments below. D

Excellent discipline, and I enjoyed the matrix post just as I did the first time I read it when I just began my understanding of technical analysis.

[macavity]

I think it is all about timeframes. Friday evening: My IT indicators said "IT OverBought in a LT Bear Trend with IT Momentum falling" My ST indicators said "ST Oversold in a IT Bull Trend with ST Momentum bullish divergent" I can imagine a scenario with a ST rally leading to a new but divergent IT (Price) high. If new high is not divergent - breadth and volume - then I will revert to bullish. But my IT indicators suggest down. Trailing this rally with a sell stop. Letting The Market put me into my position.

Edited by macavity, 18 May 2009 - 03:17 PM.

[arbman]

It wasn't a big surprise since I knew the Fed was going to intervene, the problem was whether it was before 875 was broken or after. So far, they intervened right before it was broken.

In any case the bear pattern closely played out so far, I think we will see a range for the rest of the month since the short term buying probably got depleted with this extreme buying action and we may see a last blow off much later around the 6 days of strength...

This reminds of of their intervention around overnight ES 908 a month ago. The momentum will be less and less from here since the inflation is also going higher and their ability to pump up. So, I expect the 890s to be revisited at a minimum in the days ahead.

[goldswinger]

IYB, Seven Sentinels is fine!, this just seems like a C up of an ABC correction with a down resolution and continuation of the downtrend to me. Time to reload on the short side at the next 60 MIN Turn which could be Tomorrow after the open...... Goldswinger.

[wallyw]

by my interpretation, they went to a sell on 5-12-09, and right now I'm in the process of evaluating that signal and I'll comment in more detail later

no indicator is spot on. i tend to agree with you while i think that we will rally to above 943 before it ends. i also agree with not fighting your own indicators. i know of many analysts/investors who lose all their money by not being faithful to their indicators.

[IYB]

IYB, Seven Sentinels is fine!, this just seems like a C up of an ABC correction with a down resolution and continuation of the downtrend to me.
Time to reload on the short side at the next 60 MIN Turn which could be Tomorrow after the open......

Goldswinger.

That is one of the options I'm considering. I appreciate the comment GS. D

[pedro]

As Don knows from a PM that I sent him over the weekend, I expected this. Mostly, my hourlies were oversold but there was considerably more. You can probably short the open, but it won't last. 930 for sure, 950 probably, and 1000 is not out of reach. If I have to wait for my next STANDARD IT short signal that has any lasting value (ie, trend change) it won't come until June as the earliest. And the distance, not just the time but also in price, between now and then, will surprise everyone. As we all know, its just shenanigans, but its best to respect THEIR emotions even as we try to maintain our level headed detachment. I did get IT short signals when 7S tripped, but there was a fishy look about them, and indeed they vanished if I applied my monthly chart filters. I'll report my next signal in as timely a manner as I can, and qualify it if its before June 1. One chartist I do respect has today as A, tomorrow as B, then an ED for C. But I think it extends beyond that somehow.

[arbman]

My bear market pattern analysis for DJI did not cover the 2000-2003 earlier since the action was in the tech correction mainly back then. But even when I look at the current 200 and 50 day %-ma on NDX, the awful pattern emerges. Fed will not stop inflating here until they cannot anymore, so wait for the rates to spike until going heavily short, now everybody knows we are in deep ********...

My target for the 30 yr is around 5.25% or so for the next sell off to begin, we may not get there for another month (!)...

We are most likely building the yearly top here...

Edited by arbman, 18 May 2009 - 06:05 PM.