Posted 20 May 2009 - 11:45 AM
Don,
The point I was attempting to make is using the 13 month with positive slope (or, even the 200d as you just mentioned) would have caused one to miss over half the bull run! In the case of the 13 months you would have missed more than the 200d, obviously.
That's why I posted. Again, in many major market turns the 50wema type strategy (or 200d/13 month) works but not all. It's important to consider the market dynamics or what's behind things instead of just a "black box" technique like always waiting for said MA to turn. Here we have a nasty bear that brought the averages so far below these MA's that using that type of strategy would be unwise.
That's why I complemented you on the value of something like the 7 Sentinels for IT trading....I'm calling this a bull rally in a bear market...like you....because I too use the 50wkema and its slope. However, I think there's more than a chance that using this as a context of this rally could be wrong in this case due to the dynamics of the bear that preceeded this rally.
Points well taken Cirrus. I am not actually advocating that trading accounts stay out of the long side during IT advances in a bear market---as you know the current IT advance has made me a lot of money....but am only trying to respond to the title line of this string. My simple point is that by any reasonable definition, I for one, could never, ever call the current climate a Bull Market. And to blindly get long or stay long now with a buy and hold mentality on hopes that this is a bull market, to me is insanity. Anyhow, I appreciate the exchange.....Regards, D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds