28 replies to this topic

[souelle6]

"I feel like I am taking crazy pills here" - Mugatu Been watching gold to the point of exhaustion for over 18 months now. I'm no day trader, I play the meat in curves and so far I've played this one well... Sold in September back in for the first week of November then sold out about a week before quantitative easing was announced in Feb (announced earlier than I expected) and got back in only to be stopped out shortly after. Since then I have been sideways. However, I have felt like the bull story is finished. Gold being the only commodity able to fully recover from October, is it possible (though I hate to say it) that this f***in thing has every potential piece of bullish news priced in. How is Gold a better play than it was when it traded to $1004 when the USD was getting whacked against everything the USDCAD, USDAUDs etc... Were trading at highs!... I mean has any one of us heard a new piece of information that could bring gold past $1000 since the quantitative easing was announced. WHY!? All of a sudden am I hearing all this business from Rosenberg and any other reputable economist that "gold is in an undeniable bull run" Is there anyone else out there who, like me feels that it is an undeniable headfake! I'm no chartist I play pivotal points and normally try to play gold through the high beta K.to (love beta) and I believe that this is anything but a headfake until my K.to trades comfortably above the 23.75 level... But I expect it will trade comfortably below my (approx.) $17.00 downside PP before... No chart, you guys kill me on charts

[goldswinger]

GOLD is in a bull market!. It had 5 waves up from 2000 or so to March 2008. An 8 year up run could easily have a 2 year correction. We did an A wave down to October, a B wave up back to 1000+ in February and a C wave down which should end somewhere around 680 again but because of the excessive printing, etc. maybe 800....... Silver, GDX, $XAU and $HUI are just completing their B wave up. The USD also is undergoing a lenghty correction up.....all commodities and foreign markets look toppy as well which typically coincide with gold sector tops....... Goldswinger.

[SilentOne]

Been watching gold to the point of exhaustion for over 18 months now. I'm no day trader, I play the meat in curves and so far I've played this one well... Sold in September back in for the first week of November then sold out about a week before quantitative easing was announced in Feb (announced earlier than I expected) and got back in only to be stopped out shortly after. Since then I have been sideways. However, I have felt like the bull story is finished. Gold being the only commodity able to fully recover from October, is it possible (though I hate to say it) that this f***in thing has every potential piece of bullish news priced in. How is Gold a better play than it was when it traded to $1004 when the USD was getting whacked against everything the USDCAD, USDAUDs etc... Were trading at highs!... I mean has any one of us heard a new piece of information that could bring gold past $1000 since the quantitative easing was announced. WHY!? All of a sudden am I hearing all this business from Rosenberg and any other reputable economist that "gold is in an undeniable bull run" Is there anyone else out there who, like me feels that it is an undeniable headfake! I'm no chartist I play pivotal points and normally try to play gold through the high beta K.to (love beta) and I believe that this is anything but a headfake until my K.to trades comfortably above the 23.75 level... But I expect it will trade comfortably below my (approx.) $17.00 downside PP before... No chart, you guys kill me on charts

It is what it is. Can't disagree with what's been said.

cheers,

john

[swanstkdh]

So how long is the down cycle supposed to last?

[goldswinger]

Unttil it turns 'gain...... but probably a few months.....with probably a major move up in between....... I have struggled with this position myself, I was a bit early but feel very strongly about it. You could say it was a case of Cognitive disonance, where part of your brain thinks something should happen but the other part says No way! All the FED printing and bailouts, etc, say GOLD should have been well over 1000 already by now but it is not and charts are confirming that it is not.... and that there is at least one major cycle down before that even becomes a possibility again. I believe GOLD will ultimately exceed well over $1000, but not yet. Goldswinger.

[dharma]

if you dont mind , here is my 2c big round #s are natural resistance and since 1k is the first big round # gold has come to , it has not and will not break above it on the 1st ,2nd , and maybe even 3rd try. however the pattern it is making is very favorable for future upside gains. these things take time gold has an 8.6yr cycle, that is well known. as silent one points out merriman (http://www.mmacycles...s-for-the-week/) has an annual forecast issue , which i still think is a bargain, and in it he presents the idea that gold is in a 25 year bull market. he feels it is composed of 3-8.6yr cycles. the 1st of which bottomed this past november and we are in the 2nd one now. so according to him there is lots of time left in this bull market i started trading in 79 after studying ta for 2 years. and since that time many bull markets have come and gone. and i have noticed that they all have the same characteristics. they all result in parabolic(vertical) blowoffs. every single one of em. @the top everyone wants whatever it is . and this one will be no different and that is how you will know its the top. this is about loss of confidence in the currency, govt etc. it is building momo and it wont be complete until it blows its top. hard to say how long that will take. we have gone from the dollar being as good as gold. to the dollar now a debt laden promise. dharma

[souelle6]

Unttil it turns 'gain...... but probably a few months.....with probably a major move up in between.......

I have struggled with this position myself, I was a bit early but feel very strongly about it. You could say it was a case of Cognitive disonance, where part of your brain thinks something should happen but the other part says No way!

All the FED printing and bailouts, etc, say GOLD should have been well over 1000 already by now but it is not and charts are confirming that it is not.... and that there is at least one major cycle down before that even becomes a possibility again.

I believe GOLD will ultimately exceed well over $1000, but not yet.


Goldswinger.

Mr. Goldswinger... leaving cognitive dissonance aside... This is ultimately the issue I am struggling with.... gold SHOULD be above 1000, however, it is not and as I have proclaimed I don't see news that could bring it up otherwise... That being the case (I know I'm probably not talking your language) have we UNDERESTIMATED JUST HOW EXPENSIVE $1000 gold is??... I mean its making multi-MULTI year highs against the grains and nat gas and everything ... Is an equity rebound bringing gold back to pre 2006 levels i.e 500 possible by your standards? I also am not sold by the printing argument... Inflation I know is 'hiding' and should 'creep into the system' sometime X in the future. Is this news? Furthermore, If the world increases the monetary supply at the same rate or greater than the U.S the currency issue could cancel itself out here...... someone must still be slipping me those pills I guess

Edited by souelle6, 28 May 2009 - 02:42 PM.

[SilentOne]

dharma,

the 1st of which bottomed this past november and we are in the 2nd one now.

Not convinced that this is true. Let's see where gold is late this year. Silver has not made its 9 year low yet which is due next year. This IMO is a "B" wave rally and we have another leg down in gold stocks, whether that is a new low or not is immaterial.

The reason why I am hesitant is that there is another round of deflation ahead into next year. I am a big bear and I believe the $SPX 666 lows will be taken out next year some time.

And for those that like to throw caution into the wind and take all kinds of risk here, think back to last summer and what you could have done differently.

cheers,

john

[souelle6]

if you dont mind , here is my 2c
big round #s are natural resistance and since 1k is the first big round # gold has come to , it has not and will not break above it on the 1st ,2nd , and maybe even 3rd try. however the pattern it is making is very favorable for future upside gains. these things take time
gold has an 8.6yr cycle, that is well known. as silent one points out merriman (http://www.mmacycles...s-for-the-week/) has an annual forecast issue , which i still think is a bargain, and in it he presents the idea that gold is in a 25 year bull market. he feels it is composed of 3-8.6yr cycles. the 1st of which bottomed this past november and we are in the 2nd one now. so according to him there is lots of time left in this bull market
i started trading in 79 after studying ta for 2 years. and since that time many bull markets have come and gone. and i have noticed that they all have the same characteristics. they all result in parabolic(vertical) blowoffs. every single one of em. @the top everyone wants whatever it is . and this one will be no different and that is how you will know its the top. this is about loss of confidence in the currency, govt etc. it is building momo and it wont be complete until it blows its top. hard to say how long that will take. we have gone from the dollar being as good as gold. to the dollar now a debt laden promise.
dharma

(Totally just curious, trying to get to the bottom of this) How close would it have to get to 1000 for you to consider it a "run at 1000" I mean we've done $978 and $964 since... Consistently lower highs right? Bearish? Does it have to do with the strength of the movement? if yes then what are your measurables

Edited by souelle6, 28 May 2009 - 02:42 PM.

[dharma]

dharma,

the 1st of which bottomed this past november and we are in the 2nd one now.

Not convinced that this is true. Let's see where gold is late this year. Silver has not made its 9 year low yet which is due next year. This IMO is a "B" wave rally and we have another leg down in gold stocks, whether that is a new low or not is immaterial.

The reason why I am hesitant is that there is another round of deflation ahead into next year. I am a big bear and I believe the $SPX 666 lows will be taken out next year some time.

And for those that like to throw caution into the wind and take all kinds of risk here, think back to last summer and what you could have done differently.

cheers,

john

it looks to me like we have had 5waves up off those lows. we shall see. jupiter goes retrograde june 14th-october 14 there should be some weakness in that window.
i disagree w/you on silver .
and i trade much differently than you. there are many ways to play these markets and i have been @this for 30 years , so i must have figured somethings out.
dharma