28 replies to this topic

[goldswinger]

I am in agreement with you. You are suffering from a bit of that Cognitive disonance malaise. I agree with Silentone also. GM going down with half their dealers, etc. will be more deflationary going forward. Everybody 's printing as much as the US, so the $USD does not have to tank contrary to some pundits remarks. That begs the question that everything hard (if you drop it on your foot and it hurts it should be a buy) should be bought with all these pesos circulating. Trouble is money is also dissapearing as fast as it is being printed, another whiff of deflation will make more pesos go into money heaven and that will prevent the inflation that everybody's talking about......eventually after a few cycles it will come.....in style..... Funny thing is all of this and more usually gets encapsulated in the charts with some margin of error.....and generally they are right if interpreted correctly..... GS.

[SilentOne]

dharma,

i disagree w/you on silver .

Cycles are my thing. It is interesting that Ray Merriman's work has been so similar to my Hurst take. I only discovered this a couple of years ago, but it has been very good for me. My extreme caution last summer? It was simply because I saw a 4.5 and 9 year low ahead and there was no reason to be long (other than to hold my bullion). Merriman had pegged the top in March 2008 as likely in his 2008 forecast book. Large cycles are tricky and there is no guarantee that the larger cycles have bottomed. Merriman ackowledges this. Time will tell.

As for silver, it made its last 4.5 year low in June 2006. The next likely 4.5 and 9 year nest of lows will be in 2010 (mid?). This also happens to align with Merriman's view of silver (per 2009 Forecast book). I have no idea how high silver wants to go ST, but I am very confident that it will come back down next year. This also makes sense when I look at the $SPX Hurst cycles I follow. Silver is like copper and other industrial metals. If we are going to see more deflation and another market test next year, I wouldn't expect silver to do well in such an environment.

Merriman is the only astrologer I follow. I have great respect for his combination of astro and cycle work. There were a lot of astrologers that were blind-sided by the collapse in gold and gold stocks.

Good luck in your trading.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 28 May 2009 - 03:43 PM.

[dharma]

dharma,

i disagree w/you on silver .

Cycles are my thing. It is interesting that Ray Merriman's work has been so similar to my Hurst take. I only discovered this a couple of years ago, but it has been very good for me. My extreme caution last summer? It was simply because I saw a 4.5 and 9 year low ahead and there was no reason to be long (other than to hold my bullion). Merriman had pegged the top in March 2008 as likely in his 2008 forecast book. Large cycles are tricky and there is no guarantee that the larger cycles have bottomed. Merriman ackowledges this. Time will tell.

As for silver, it made its last 4.5 year low in June 2006. The next likely 4.5 and 9 year nest of lows will be in 2010 (mid?). This also happens to align with Merriman's view of silver (per 2009 Forecast book). I have no idea how high silver wants to go ST, but I am very confident that it will come back down next year. This also makes sense when I look at the $SPX Hurst cycles I follow. Silver is like copper and other industrial metals. If we are going to see more deflation and another market test next year, I wouldn't expect silver to do well in such an environment.

Merriman is the only astrologer I follow. I have great respect for his combination of astro and cycle work. There were a lot of astrologers that were blind-sided by the collapse in gold and gold stocks.

Good luck in your trading.

cheers,

john

i trade the markets, i wouldnt know you if you were standing next to me. i am here to help others . i have nothing for or against you. it is the markets that i tackle . good bye and good luck dharma

[SilentOne]

i trade the markets, i wouldnt know you if you were standing next to me. i am here to help others . i have nothing for or against you. it is the markets that i tackle . good bye and good luck dharma

??

[gvc]

alright, since everyone is throwing their hats in this gold ring , I may as well too. I have missed this latest move in the gold mainly because I believed the April low was going to be around 825 to set up a double bottom type of situation in July . but it didnt happen so i stayed out. i still believe that gold did not make its 8 year low last October. thats way to early for the 96-102 month cycle to bottom (counting from April '01). now i'm hoping the train comes to a stop in July/august at the latest before pulling completely out of the station. If there is a collapse coming, i'll probably get back in too early, but rather I lose initially than not be in it when the "parabolic" takes place.

you all need to read this article:

http://www.globalres...articleId=13738

[nimblebear]

Itll be at $5000/ounce B4 you turn 60 !!! Hows' that ? Quit worrying. Its a bull. Smells like a bull, looks like a bull, walks like a bull, and its been the ONLY REAL BULL since 2000. Why worry about all the noise ? Nobody wants it to be in a bull bc it will repudiate all other (wrong minded) investment classes. remember, everyone still thinks gold is for curmudgeons and gold bugs, two very "horribly unfashionable" labels. You know, everyone tese days has to have a "designer" car, hat, shoes, suits, dress, jeans, house, home, backyard, patio, pool, etc. the "designer" investment dujours are google and apple, and hedge funds, and derivative plays. But gold ? Its ancient, a relic, a thing of the past, spurned by everyone, and loved by noone. Even Nixon hated it. Mr watergate himself. So would you invest in anything Nixon loved ? I doubt it. So enjoy the ride.

Edited by nimblebear, 28 May 2009 - 07:31 PM.

[tradermama]

dharma,

the 1st of which bottomed this past november and we are in the 2nd one now.

Not convinced that this is true. Let's see where gold is late this year. Silver has not made its 9 year low yet which is due next year. This IMO is a "B" wave rally and we have another leg down in gold stocks, whether that is a new low or not is immaterial.

The reason why I am hesitant is that there is another round of deflation ahead into next year. I am a big bear and I believe the $SPX 666 lows will be taken out next year some time.

And for those that like to throw caution into the wind and take all kinds of risk here, think back to last summer and what you could have done differently.

cheers,

john

it looks to me like we have had 5waves up off those lows. we shall see. jupiter goes retrograde june 14th-october 14 there should be some weakness in that window.
i disagree w/you on silver .
and i trade much differently than you. there are many ways to play these markets and i have been @this for 30 years , so i must have figured somethings out.
dharma

Dharma,
I too follow astrology and Merriman like you and John. Regarding silver, do you have an upside target for this year? Merriman said in his webcast he had in May that if silver closed at 15 then the highest he sees it this year would be 17 or 18. He also regards it more of a industrial metal rather than precisous metal because he said it was classified as that this year, which recently I saw an article about that but seems like most think it is still the "poor man's gold". I have been playing the slv and had fun with the gaps but I'm now on the sides at these levels knowing his next turn date is Jun 2 plus/minus 3 days. And he says, next year is the time to buy silver.

Thanks for your insight.

IRene
P.S on gold, he said that if $1040 isn't taken out, then the 8 1/2 yr low isn't in and next year it goes lower. And gold too is at the same turn date...if it is taken out..his projection for summer is $1100-1150 for gold.

[souelle6]

Itll be at $5000/ounce B4 you turn 60 !!!

Hows' that ? Quit worrying. Its a bull. Smells like a bull, looks like a bull, walks like a bull, and its been the ONLY REAL BULL since 2000. Why worry about all the noise ? Nobody wants it to be in a bull bc it will repudiate all other (wrong minded) investment classes. remember, everyone still thinks gold is for curmudgeons and gold bugs, two very "horribly unfashionable" labels.

You know, everyone tese days has to have a "designer" car, hat, shoes, suits, dress, jeans, house, home, backyard, patio, pool, etc.

the "designer" investment dujours are google and apple, and hedge funds, and derivative plays. But gold ? Its ancient, a relic, a thing of the past, spurned by everyone, and loved by noone. Even Nixon hated it. Mr watergate himself. So would you invest in anything Nixon loved ? I doubt it.

So enjoy the ride.

I have no time for generalities and lines like "remember everyone still thinks gold is for curmudgeons" ....someone looks like retail smells like retail

[dharma]

coming into my cycle highs june 5 bradley june 3rd 980-1040 window for gold acceleration into the highs is normal the dollar is toast, the year correction is/was normal looking for much lower #s in the buck over time the gold market is in a bull market . i have a small % in silver. i have had my doubts that silver would ever see $52 again,but close this will end in a parabolic blowoff down the road. dharma

[souelle6]

this will end in a parabolic blowoff down the road.
dharma

Although I know we employ entirely different trading strategies, I think the above line sums up my feelings exactly

Edited by souelle6, 29 May 2009 - 09:58 AM.