25 replies to this topic

[zigzag]

Semi, it looks like we did take it out but not on bigger volume. Is that what you said?

It says all the upside since 5/8 is a Bearish Upthrust.

OK then. I understand that. Thanks.

[MoneyFriend]

It's telling us that the entire upside since the week of 5/8 is an upthrust...

Good Luck.

So if 5/8/09 had taken out the highs on the first try, you would agree on my analysis?
To me this is all consolidation before the next leg up. I don't think 1600 holds on the first test either.

[rkd80]

It's telling us that the entire upside since the week of 5/8 is an upthrust...

Good Luck.

This is entirely correct, unfortunately people are ignoring for whatever peculiar reason the breakthrough of price on all major indices on considerably less volume. Yet because of summer volume/holiday/<insert reason here> volume is disregarded.

My only confusion is to how long this can continue, because we have broken quite a few price ranges on lower volume...

[zigzag]

i'm sure there's a reason why you mark the "present" on a past time frame?

Its all the volume from today going back all the way to one year ago, "this past 12 months" would have been a clearer title.

OK. That makes sense. But from a laymans perspective, if it was really that simple, we would eventually roll into the trough and settle where the lowest volume is marked and the markets never move again. Who's gonna turn off the lights.

[SemiBizz]

It's telling us that the entire upside since the week of 5/8 is an upthrust...

Good Luck.

So if 5/8/09 had taken out the highs on the first try, you would agree on my analysis?
To me this is all consolidation before the next leg up. I don't think 1600 holds on the first test either.

Well, it didn't and that was a bad sign. If it had, that would have been quality of volume upside.

BTW, did I ever mention I worked in semiconductors for 20 + years or so?

[MoneyFriend]

This is entirely correct, unfortunately people are ignoring for whatever peculiar reason the breakthrough of price on all major indices on considerably less volume. Yet because of summer volume/holiday/<insert reason here> volume is disregarded.

My only confusion is to how long this can continue, because we have broken quite a few price ranges on lower volume...

But, as I pointed out just yesterday to Tommy T, dollar volume is on par. This suggests the big players in the market are allotting the same decent amounts of buying power as usual but just purchasing more expensive stock.

[jjc]

i'm sure there's a reason why you mark the "present" on a past time frame?

Its all the volume from today going back all the way to one year ago, "this past 12 months" would have been a clearer title.

OK. That makes sense. But from a laymans perspective, if it was really that simple, we would eventually roll into the trough and settle where the lowest volume is marked and the markets never move again. Who's gonna turn off the lights.

I think, but I'm not sure, MF's analysis is based on market profile theory. The premise I believe is the lower volume summer (seasonal) will keep price contained with in the
volume distribution defined by the past year's expansionary moves. Assuming the market is not rocked by a significant shock we should find ourselves filling out the tails of
the volume distribution at the higher end of price.

[MoneyFriend]

If it was really that simple, we would eventually roll into the trough and settle where the lowest volume is marked and the markets never move again. Who's gonna turn off the lights.

It's not that simple I'm just using the marble analogy to illustrate how little resistance is overhead.


Semi, I'd like to hear your take on this please:

Edited by MoneyFriend, 10 June 2009 - 10:24 PM.

[MoneyFriend]

[SemiBizz]

Perfectly easy... You were in a BULL Market there. That's not what is happening in this time frame.