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Why home prices aren't close to bottoming


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#1 nimblebear

nimblebear

    Welcome to the Dark Side !

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 09:49 AM

A survey of realtors shows people are still hanging onto to pricing their homes way too high, and not recognizing that they simply are not going to get the price they think its worth, and its going to keep them from selling their home for far longer. Even in an up market if you price your home and then have to drop it later, statistics clearly show you will get far less than if you priced it correctly in the first place, as once you start dropping the price, people wait for a deal, wonder if you are desperate , wonder why someone else hasn't bought it, wonder what's wrong with the home if you are having to drop the price. In a down market, having to again drop your price is a killer. Over 31% of new listings, have had to drop their prices in the local area, and some areas report over 40% of listings having dropped their price at least once. There are few buyers and the ones looking are WAITING FOR A DEAL !!! They know the economy is down, they want lower prices, so they can qualify to get in it, and qualify for the mortgage they want, which means NOW THEY HAVE TO PUT A DOWN PAYMENT of some measure, whereas before banks were quite lax and giving mortgages to dogs, cats, and anything that breathed. But sellers keep trying to live as though its 2006, whereas they probably need to price their home as though its 2001. Realtors are trying to coach them, but many don't listen and even ask more. Comp's are even not a good indicator when prices are heading downward as they lag by nature. Unemployment keeps increasing, which increases the pool of inventory on the market via foreclosures and via less people able to be buyers. The people who started being layed off 12 to 18 months ago, which is before the huge huge monthly numbers really started rising are now likely facing foreclosure as quite simply if they didn't get a job, and ran out of money finally, they are having to leave their homes by now. Nope. We aint even close to a bottom in housing prices. People simply haven't adjusted their expectations. Their home isn't worth anywhere close to what they think, as Greenspan artifically jacked everyone's home price up by lowering the rates way below histroical norms. Bernanke by keeping rates at zero, in effect has set a put under under the market, to keep home prices propped far longer than they should be which will worsen any possibility of recovery. If he wouldn't have done that, home prices would have collapsed far faster and people would have found the deals they wanted, and we'd be on the path to reovery. It would have meant more pain at first, but then for sure we'd be having tons more home selling and buying, more transactions, which by virtue would have spurred mant parts of the economy. Instead, people remain house poor. Banks remain insolvent. The economy will tank further and hemorrage for quite a while.
OTIS.