28 replies to this topic

[Frac_Man]

Hope he's right ! Prechter released an "interim report" that stated that the end is nigh and it is time to go short. He released it a little after 9AM this morning.

[Tor]

Hope he's right !




Prechter released an "interim report" that stated that the end is nigh and it is time to go short.
He released it a little after 9AM this morning.

forget prechter he's been bearish since the lows of 1990!

[skott]

well, we know his timing is impecable give or take a decade

[libs]

May 14 2009 , 08:17 PM
http://www.reuters.c...lBrandChannel=0

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longtime technical analyst Robert Prechter, who forecast the 1987 stock market crash, predicted this week that U.S. equities may plunge to half their lows hit in March as a deflationary depression bites.

Oil and U.S. Treasury bonds are also locked in long term bear markets, while corporate bond prices will plunge precipitously by next year as broad economy, banking system and company earnings sustain more damage from a financial crisis that's akin to the Great Depression, he said.

The U.S. S&P 500 stock index's .SPX rebound by nearly 40 percent since it sagged to a 12-year closing low of 676 points on March 9 is not sustainable, Prechter said in an interview with Reuters.

"It's not the start of a new bull market," said Prechter, chief executive at research company Elliott Wave International in Gainesville, Georgia. "Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize, something along the lines of 1929-1932," he told Reuters in a wide ranging interview. "It's a very rare event," he added.

"I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety," he said.

[CallMeIshmael]

well, we know his timing is impecable give or take a decade

Very funny. Actually, it's more like give or take a year (or two or three). In this case I think he's very close (within a few months at most). Here's his thinking:
1) Friday's close of 9544.20 is within inches of his ideal target of 9657-9794. He acknowledges that 10334 is still possible though a long shot (his opinion);
2) 21 day ma of NYSE Trin stands at .880, the lowest since October 9, 2007 (.881) the day of the Dow's all time closing high;
3) Investor's Intelligence reports 19.8% bears, the lowest bearish sentiment since October 2007;
4) Average of cash balances has fallen to 3.5%, the lowest since July 2007 when the A/D line peaked;
5) Friday's Daily Sentiment Index was 89% bulls. At the March 2009 lows it was 2%. At the peak of October 2007 it was 88% so Friday's peak exceeded that.
All this just scratches the surface of Precter's analyses just published on Friday (EWTFF, STU, and Interim Reports). It sure is a convincing argument. The only thing that stays my hand here is a convincing turn in FED funds forcing the FED's hand.

We are close folks, very close, not necessarily in terms of time but in events. Keep your powder dry. We're almost there.

[skott]

ishmael. I am correct. a decade or longer. He was calling the top in the early 80's as a new and lengthy bull market began. I don't think we have a bull market now but I am just saying he is not a good timer at all.

[CallMeIshmael]

ishmael. I am correct. a decade or longer. He was calling the top in the early 80's as a new and lengthy bull market began. I don't think we have a bull market now but I am just saying he is not a good timer at all.

Elliott Wave isn't about timing. That's why I say keep your powder dry.

[inamosa]

I think people have a right to criticize Precther He should stick to writing books and stop masquerading as a trader This guy is not someone a person should get advice on how to trade from

[blackprince]

Who knows his had may get real hot like the 80's again. He has not been off yet this year as he went long in March as did I. My only problem is starting to go short the QQQQ at 39.31 and having added to it at 40.56.

[CallMeIshmael]

I think people have a right to criticize Precther

He should stick to writing books and stop masquerading as a trader

This guy is not someone a person should get advice on how to trade from

What makes you think he's a trader? He's a market letter writer. Why should he risk his own money trading? At best, he might be a long term investor but he's no short term market timer, that's for sure.