28 replies to this topic

[inamosa]

Whether he's a trader or not doesn't matter to me The point is that many people take his trading recommendations to heart and they don't realize they're being fooled by a guy with a terrible track record over the years

[muskoka joe]

Whether he's a trader or not doesn't matter to me

The point is that many people take his trading recommendations to heart and they don't realize they're being fooled by a guy with a terrible track record over the years

He recommended buying the open Oct 19th 1987. He was bearish before that tho.

[inamosa]

Whether he's a trader or not doesn't matter to me

The point is that many people take his trading recommendations to heart and they don't realize they're being fooled by a guy with a terrible track record over the years

He recommended buying the open Oct 19th 1987. He was bearish before that tho.

Tell me how long you've been aware of Precther's trade recommendations...I guarantee it hasn't been long, judging from your response to me

Never been a fan of Bob's but I know from others (including former subscribers) he's been a terrible timer over the years

Too bad all he talks about are the few correct calls he's made

For every correct call he seems to have a dozen bad ones

[laza]

He's done some trading in his time. He won the U.S. Trading Championship in 1984, with a then-record 444% return in a monitored options trading account (Source: Wikipedia). But his main deal is analysis.

[inamosa]

Here’s how Prechter’s trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index), according to newstracker Mark Hulbert’s analysis:

Annualized Return:
* Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
* Prechter'’s Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:
* Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
* Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):
* Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
* Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700

( This info is taken from: http://www.erictyson...ticles/20090616 )


There are few portfolios with worse performance - and I mean anywhere.

He is a smart guy judging by his book and from some of his analysis. But, you should think twice before following his trading recommendations. In fact, he's actually been a great fade over the years.

Edited by Aly, 29 August 2009 - 09:15 PM.

[NAV]

Permabears and Permabulls like Prechter and da_cheif are bound to be right during some part of the market cycles. But, both have been wrong for decades on their so called "Big picture stuff". Prechter at least posts some e-wave charts to back his opinion. I am yet to see one single e-wave chart from da_cheif, anywhere on the web. Both are big waste of my time IMHO. There's no substitute for independent thinking in this business.

[IYB]

5) Friday's Daily Sentiment Index was 89% bulls. At the March 2009 lows it was 2%. At the peak of October 2007 it was 88% so Friday's peak exceeded that.

Anybody know what the "daily sentiment index" referenced here is and where its history is available? Just curious.... Thanks, D

[redfoliage2]

5) Friday's Daily Sentiment Index was 89% bulls. At the March 2009 lows it was 2%. At the peak of October 2007 it was 88% so Friday's peak exceeded that.

Anybody know what the "daily sentiment index" referenced here is and where its history is available? Just curious.... Thanks, D

Try this link:
http://www.trade-fut.../dsireport.html

[CallMeIshmael]

5) Friday's Daily Sentiment Index was 89% bulls. At the March 2009 lows it was 2%. At the peak of October 2007 it was 88% so Friday's peak exceeded that.

Anybody know what the "daily sentiment index" referenced here is and where its history is available? Just curious.... Thanks, D

Investors' Intelligence

[CallMeIshmael]

Here’s how Prechter’s trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index), according to newstracker Mark Hulbert’s analysis:

Annualized Return:
* Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
* Prechter'’s Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:
* Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
* Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):
* Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
* Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700

( This info is taken from: http://www.erictyson...ticles/20090616 )


There are few portfolios with worse performance - and I mean anywhere.

He is a smart guy judging by his book and from some of his analysis. But, you should think twice before following his trading recommendations. In fact, he's actually been a great fade over the years.

No need to show me that. I went broke following his advice in '99. He was proved right though - eventually. Unfortunately, eventually wasn't soon enough for me. That's why, even though I still subscribe to his service I try to keep his analysis in perspective. I don't follow it reflexively but wait for confirmation, in this case from the FED. Yes, I know the FED has many tricks up its sleeve to throw you off. I have a strong suspicion though that the traders at Goldman Sachs get a clearer picture of what the FED is planning. Just a feeling though. But one thing the FED can't fake is its interest rate stance. Just watch FED Funds. That'll tell the tale. And beware the Plunge Protection Team. They're there to protect the options writers at Goldman Sachs - or so I think. Options buyers beware! Stick to the ETFs. You won't make as much money true, but you'll survive the machinations of the Plunge Protection Team.

Edited by CallMeIshmael, 30 August 2009 - 09:57 AM.